AAL

$14.16

Public overview and default valuation.

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Valuation Details
Default assumptions: 10Y forecast, 9% market return, 2.5% terminal growth, 3.15% trendline growth.
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$207.45

With 20% Margin of Safety (MoS):

$165.96
1072.03% upside
Capital Efficiency
Average Quarterly ROIC
1.9%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.
Fundamental Score
61
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
1072.0% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
73.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.9% vs WACC 7.0% (0.3x)
14
Net Debt / FCF
3.3x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
546.5% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.
Narrative Score
51
Weak
Weighted across 6 recent drivers · Last 30 days+1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline: High (100th pct)
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 87%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 117 (News 108 · Analyst 9)
Drivers
88 news sentiment+0.4
3 earnings miss-0.3
10 regulatory scrutiny-0.1
4 upgrade headlines+0.1
2 analyst upgrades+0.0
2 legal risk-0.0
Other Metrics
P/E84.3
Profit Margin0.2%
Owner Earnings$5.87b
One Dollar Premise0.00%
Debt/Equity-16.57
Current Ratio0.54
PEG-1.034
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
$2,469$2,649-$518$2,451$3,203$2,294$3,173$3,789$8,391$12,400$12,255$10,715$7,278$8,083-$4,412$912$5,079$6,399$6,666$6,878
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates American Airlines Group Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

American Airlines Group Inc.Industrials

American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier. The company provides scheduled air transportation services for passengers and cargo through its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C., as well as through partner gateways in London, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney, and Tokyo. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a mainline fleet of 865 aircraft. The company was formerly known as AMR Corporation and changed its name to American Airlines Group Inc. in December 2013. American Airlines Group Inc. was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.

Last updated: Feb 06, 2026
Data sources: Financial Modeling Prep
This valuation is based on assumptions and publicly available data. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.