Market Pulse53Neutral

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.Opportunity Rank #315(AAOI) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$112.02

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$112.02
Price
$1.49
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 99%MOS: $1.19

Fundamental Score

7/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

62/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

21/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) is estimated at $1.49 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $112.02, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -47.05% long-term growth rate and an 11.96% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) is estimated at $1.49 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $112.02, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -47.05% long-term growth rate and an 11.96% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1.49
-98.67% downside
20% margin of safety: $1.19
Years: 10Growth Rate: -47.05%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-1.43%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

7/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
98.7% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-2.0% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -1.4% vs WACC 8.0% (-0.2x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
1.5x net debt to FCF
44
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-63.5% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

62/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (28th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 44 (42 News · 2 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
36 news sentiment+1.1
4 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Margin pressure+0.0
2 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

21/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+155.3%
Distance from 52-Week High-55.1%
Price vs 50 EMA-26.5%
Price vs 21 EMA1 · -17.6%
Price vs 50 EMA0 · -26.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA2 · -10.7%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -31.6%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +155.3%
Distance from 52W High0 · -55.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 45d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. is significantly overvalued with a current price nearly 99% above its estimated fair value of $1.7, supported by weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. Despite a weak but improving narrative score, the company's financial health and cash flow metrics remain concerning.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's continued inability to generate returns above its cost of capital, which could further deteriorate its valuation and financial stability.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -47.05%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -64.56%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
-$179$5-$26$2-$10-$1-$24$30$91$155$107$42$52$3$3-$20$

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.Technology

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) is a global technology firm specializing in the creation, production, and distribution of fiber-optic networking solutions. Its extensive product catalog features optical modules, a range of laser components, subassemblies, transceivers, and complete turn-key systems. The company also supplies critical infrastructure hardware such as headend, node, and distribution equipment. AAOI caters to a varied clientele, including internet data center operators, manufacturers of cable television and telecommunications equipment, and internet service providers, utilizing both direct and partner-based sales channels. Founded in 1997, Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. is headquartered in Sugar Land, Texas.

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq