Market Pulse59Neutral

Archer Aviation Inc.Opportunity Rank #309(ACHR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$6.28

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$6.28
Price
$2.82
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 55%MOS: $2.26

Fundamental Score

3/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

53/100
Weak

+3 vs previous

Trend Score

41/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Archer Aviation Inc. (ACHR) is estimated at $2.82 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $6.28, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -64.43% long-term growth rate and a 12.05% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Archer Aviation Inc. (ACHR) is estimated at $2.82 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $6.28, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -64.43% long-term growth rate and a 12.05% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$2.82
▼ -55.10% downside
20% margin of safety: $2.26
Years: 10Growth Rate: -64.43%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-299.82%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

3/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
55.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-7.5% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -299.8% vs WACC 7.0% (-42.8x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
5.4x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-68.7% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

53/100
Weak
+3 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (64th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 18h ago
Sources: 72 (71 News · 1 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
8 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
61 news sentiment+0.1
2 legal risk-0.0
Analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

41/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-52.5%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-41.1%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-18.0%
Price vs 21 EMA89 · +8.9%
Price vs 50 EMA75 · +5.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA27 · -3.0%
3M RS vs SPY5 · -18.0%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -41.1%
Distance from 52W High0 · -52.5%

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 90%
Thesis
Archer Aviation Inc. is significantly overvalued with a current price more than 50% above its estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. Despite a stable and improving narrative score, the company faces substantial financial challenges including elevated leverage and poor free cash flow growth.
Key Risk
The company's high leverage and severely negative ROIC versus WACC spread pose significant risks to its financial stability and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -64.43%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -66.86%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
-$354-$354-$287-$227-$193-$105-$21-$1

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Archer Aviation Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Archer Aviation Inc.Industrials

Archer Aviation Inc., an urban air mobility company, engages in designs, develops, manufactures, and operates electric vertical takeoff and landing aircrafts to carry passengers. The company was formerly known as Atlas Crest Investment Corp. and changed its name to Archer Aviation Inc. Archer Aviation Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.