Market Pulse50Neutral

Adobe Inc.Opportunity Rank #18(ADBE) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$247.64

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$247.64
Price
$429.62
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 73%MOS: $343.70

Fundamental Score

90/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

21/100
Broken

+1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is estimated at $429.62 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $247.64, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.42% long-term growth rate and a 10.18% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Adobe Inc. (ADBE) is estimated at $429.62 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $247.64, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.42% long-term growth rate and a 10.18% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$429.62
73.49% upside
20% margin of safety: $343.70
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.42%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
15.93%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

90/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
73.5% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
10.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 15.9% vs WACC 10.0% (1.6x)
80
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
11.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
84
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

21/100
Broken
+1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (15th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 226 (200 News · 26 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
8 earnings beat-1.2
150 news sentiment-1.0
5 legal risk-0.5
6 analyst downgrades-0.3
Downgrade headlines-0.2
4 upgrade headlines+0.1

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
BUYConfidence: 76%
Thesis
Adobe Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value nearly 79% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high ROIC exceeding its cost of capital by 5.9 points. The company demonstrates robust free cash flow growth and effective capital management, making it a compelling buy opportunity.
Key Risk
The deteriorating narrative score indicates potential underlying issues that could impact investor sentiment and stock performance.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.42%5 Year CAGR: 7.21%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$10,697$10,210$8,288$7,662$8,280$7,553$6,146$4,755$4,296$3,091$2,404$1,654$1,436$1,340$1,771$1,754$1,283$1,237$1,392$1,571$1,010

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Adobe Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Adobe Inc.Technology

Adobe Inc. operates as a diversified software company worldwide. It operates through three segments: Digital Media, Digital Experience, and Publishing and Advertising. The Digital Media segment offers products, services, and solutions that enable individuals, teams, and enterprises to create, publish, and promote content; and Document Cloud, a unified cloud-based document services platform. Its flagship product is Creative Cloud, a subscription service that allows members to access its creative products. This segment serves content creators, workers, marketers, educators, enthusiasts, communicators, and consumers. The Digital Experience segment provides an integrated platform and set of applications and services that enable brands and businesses to create, manage, execute, measure, monetize, and optimize customer experiences from analytics to commerce. This segment serves marketers, advertisers, agencies, publishers, merchandisers, merchants, web analysts, data scientists, developers, and executives across the C-suite. The Publishing and Advertising segment offers products and services, such as e-learning solutions, technical document publishing, web conferencing, document and forms platform, web application development, and high-end printing, as well as Advertising Cloud offerings. The company offers its products and services directly to enterprise customers through its sales force and local field offices, as well as to end users through app stores and through its website at adobe.com. It also distributes products and services through a network of distributors, value-added resellers, systems integrators, software vendors and developers, retailers, and original equipment manufacturers. The company was formerly known as Adobe Systems Incorporated and changed its name to Adobe Inc. in October 2018. Adobe Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.