Market Pulse44Neutral

Analog Devices, Inc.(ADI) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$445.48

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$445.48
Price
$201.04
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 55%MOS: $160.83

Fundamental Score

42/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

69/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

0/100
Unavailable

Trend data unavailable

The intrinsic value of Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) is estimated at $201.04 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $445.48, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.28% long-term growth rate and a 9.36% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) is estimated at $201.04 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $445.48, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.28% long-term growth rate and a 9.36% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$201.04
-54.87% downside
20% margin of safety: $160.83
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.28%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.32%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

42/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
54.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.6% trailing FCF yield
15
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.3% vs WACC 8.0% (0.3x)
14
Net Debt / FCF
0.9x net debt to FCF
81
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
21.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

69/100
Improving
-1 vs previousWeighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 91%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 108 (91 News · 17 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
70 news sentiment+1.4
20 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
Earnings beat+0.0
17 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

0/100
NeutralRules-based daily model
Trend score unavailable for this ticker right now.

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 82%
Thesis
Analog Devices, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 53% above estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital. The company's ROIC is substantially below its WACC, indicating poor capital efficiency despite positive free cash flow growth and buybacks.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company fails to improve its ROIC relative to WACC, which could further deteriorate shareholder value.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Emergence of fresh narrative or sentiment coverage.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.28%5 Year CAGR: 12.90%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$5,648$5,346$4,583$6,079$5,175$3,079$2,174$2,528$2,697$1,317$1,408$1,062$1,050$1,035$947$1,024$1,103$488$827$962$750

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Analog Devices, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Analog Devices, Inc.Technology

Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) is a technology leader specializing in the conception, production, validation, and global marketing of integrated circuits (ICs), software solutions, and advanced subsystems. Their offerings leverage sophisticated analog, mixed-signal, and digital signal processing technologies. The company's comprehensive product lineup features data converters, which are critical for transforming real-world analog signals into digital data and subsequently converting digital data back into analog signals. They also provide power management and reference devices, essential for power conversion, driver supervision, system sequencing, and energy optimization in industries such as automotive, telecommunications, industrial applications, and premium consumer markets. These power ICs are supported by integrated performance, integration, and software design simulation tools for precise power supply development. ADI's portfolio further includes high-performance amplifiers, designed for conditioning analog signals, as well as radio frequency (RF) and microwave ICs that underpin cellular infrastructure. They also develop microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) technology, encompassing accelerometers for sensing acceleration, gyroscopes for measuring rotation, inertial measurement units (IMUs) for detecting multi-axis movement, broadband switches for radio and instrumentation systems, and isolators. Moreover, the company supplies digital signal processing (DSP) and system products engineered for rapid numeric calculations. Serving a wide array of clients across the industrial, automotive, consumer, instrumentation, aerospace, and communications sectors, Analog Devices distributes its products globally. This is accomplished via a multifaceted approach, including a direct sales force, authorized third-party distributors, independent sales representatives throughout the United States, the Americas, Europe, Japan, China, and other regions of Asia, in addition to its online platform. Analog Devices, Inc. was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Wilmington, Massachusetts.