Market Pulse44Neutral

Automatic Data Processing, Inc.Opportunity Rank #98(ADP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$214.60

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$214.60
Price
$255.02
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 19%MOS: $204.02

Fundamental Score

81/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

31/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) is estimated at $255.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $214.60, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.24% long-term growth rate and an 8.64% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) is estimated at $255.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $214.60, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.24% long-term growth rate and an 8.64% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$255.02
18.84% upside
20% margin of safety: $204.02
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.24%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
15.36%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

81/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
18.8% discount to price
81
FCF Yield
6.7% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 15.4% vs WACC 11.0% (1.4x)
70
Net Debt / FCF
0.1x net debt to FCF
97
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
9.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
73
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (7th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 7m ago
Sources: 66 (58 News · 8 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
43 news sentiment+0.2
14 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Analyst upgrades+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
7 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

31/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-30.0%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-11.9%
Price vs 21 EMA-3.4%
Price vs 21 EMA30 · -3.4%
Price vs 50 EMA40 · -2.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA62 · +1.5%
3M RS vs SPY12 · -11.9%
6M RS vs SPY3 · -30.0%
Distance from 52W High38 · -31.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 72%
Thesis
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) presents a compelling buy opportunity with a strong fundamental score of 79 and a valuation implying an 11.6% upside. The company's ROIC of 15.36% exceeds its cost of capital by 4.4 percentage points, supported by a healthy free cash flow yield of 6.2%.
Key Risk
The deteriorating narrative trend signals potential underlying issues that could impact future performance despite strong fundamentals.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.24%5 Year CAGR: 9.84%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$5,754$5,108$4,721$4,779$3,653$3,599$3,643$3,255$2,986$2,597$2,246$2,241$2,189$1,860$2,160$1,984$1,909$1,817$2,065$1,621$2,224

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Automatic Data Processing, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Automatic Data Processing, Inc.Industrials

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) is a global provider of cloud-based solutions designed for human capital management (HCM). The company organizes its operations into two primary segments: Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization (PEO). Through its Employer Services division, ADP delivers strategic, cloud-powered platforms and comprehensive human resources (HR) outsourcing. This encompasses a wide array of services such as payroll processing, benefits administration, talent acquisition and management, general HR and workforce management, insurance, retirement planning, and regulatory compliance, often integrated into holistic HCM solutions. Conversely, the Professional Employer Organization (PEO) segment specializes in offering HR outsourcing to small and mid-sized businesses, leveraging a co-employment framework. This segment's offerings span robust benefits packages, regulatory protection and compliance, talent engagement strategies, specialized HR expertise, all-encompassing outsourcing, and even recruitment process outsourcing. Established in 1949, ADP maintains its corporate headquarters in Roseland, New Jersey.

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq