Market Pulse59Neutral

Alaska Air Group, Inc.Opportunity Rank #136(ALK) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$40.59

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$40.59
Price
$331.48
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 717%MOS: $265.18

Fundamental Score

69/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

47/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

28/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) is estimated at $331.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $40.59, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.92% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.21%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) is estimated at $331.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $40.59, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.92% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.21%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$331.48
▲ 716.65% upside
20% margin of safety: $265.18
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.92%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
0.75%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

69/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
716.7% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
63.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 0.8% vs WACC 11.0% (0.1x)
3
Net Debt / FCF
1.2x net debt to FCF
53
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
393.5% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

47/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (14th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 97%Updated: 18h ago
Sources: 93 (83 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
76 news sentiment-0.3
4 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Analyst downgrades-0.2
Earnings beat-0.0
Demand slowdown-0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0

Trend Details

28/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-38.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-4.0%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-11.3%
Price vs 21 EMA62 · +1.9%
Price vs 50 EMA39 · -2.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA21 · -4.0%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -38.1%
6M RS vs SPY22 · -11.3%
Distance from 52W High28 · -36.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
Alaska Air Group, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 727% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a healthy free cash flow yield of 63%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company shows constructive financial metrics and robust free cash flow growth.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are not currently exceeding the cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.92%5 Year CAGR: 17.00%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$2,899$2,837$2,745$2,544$3,089$1,322-$28$2,418$2,155$2,616$2,064$2,415$1,724$1,547$1,327$1,083$737$744$577$1,316$1,132

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Alaska Air Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Alaska Air Group, Inc.Industrials

Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services. The company operates through three segments: Mainline, Regional, and Horizon. It flies to approximately 120 destinations throughout North America. Alaska Air Group, Inc. was founded in 1932 and is based in Seattle, Washington.