ALK

$55.26

Public overview and default valuation.

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Valuation Details
Default assumptions: 10Y forecast, 9% market return, 2.5% terminal growth, 4.07% trendline growth.
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$525.09

With 20% Margin of Safety (MoS):

$420.07
▲ 660.17% upside
Capital Efficiency
Average Quarterly ROIC
1.21%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.
Fundamental Score
70
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
660.2% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
44.3% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.2% vs WACC 11.0% (0.1x)
6
Net Debt / FCF
1.2x net debt to FCF
54
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
391.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.
Narrative Score
62
Improving
Weighted across 5 recent drivers · Last 30 daysVs 6-Month Baseline: Average (45th pct)
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 5h ago
Sources: 65 (News 60 · Analyst 5)
Drivers
52 news sentiment+0.9
3 earnings beat+0.2
4 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Legal risk-0.0
5 analyst reiterations0.0
Other Metrics
P/E63.8
Profit Margin0.7%
Owner Earnings$2.48b
One Dollar Premise0.00%
Debt/Equity3.94
Current Ratio0.52
PEG-2.167
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
$1,132$1,316$577$744$737$1,083$1,327$1,547$1,724$2,415$2,064$2,616$2,155$2,418-$28$1,322$3,089$2,544$2,745$2,837
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Alaska Air Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Alaska Air Group, Inc.Industrials

Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services. The company operates through three segments: Mainline, Regional, and Horizon. It flies to approximately 120 destinations throughout North America. Alaska Air Group, Inc. was founded in 1932 and is based in Seattle, Washington.

Last updated: Feb 06, 2026
Data sources: Financial Modeling Prep
This valuation is based on assumptions and publicly available data. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.