Market Pulse44Neutral

The Allstate CorporationOpportunity Rank #27(ALL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$222.56

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$222.56
Price
$781.06
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 251%MOS: $624.85

Fundamental Score

85/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

+2 vs previous

Trend Score

55/100
Constructive

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of The Allstate Corporation (ALL) is estimated at $781.06 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $222.56, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.48% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.46%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Allstate Corporation (ALL) is estimated at $781.06 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $222.56, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.48% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.46%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$781.06
250.94% upside
20% margin of safety: $624.85
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.48%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
11.12%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

85/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
250.9% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
20.7% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 11.1% vs WACC 11.0% (1.0x)
51
Net Debt / FCF
0.2x net debt to FCF
96
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
15.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
+2 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (27th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 81%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 34 (27 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
24 news sentiment+0.5
Analyst downgrades-0.1
Margin pressure+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
Regulatory scrutiny-0.0
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

55/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-0.9%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-6.5%
Price vs 50 EMA+3.3%
Price vs 21 EMA62 · +2.0%
Price vs 50 EMA66 · +3.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA60 · +1.2%
3M RS vs SPY25 · -6.5%
6M RS vs SPY38 · -4.4%
Distance from 52W High98 · -0.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 71%
Thesis
The Allstate Corporation is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 243% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high free cash flow yield of 20.7% and a bullish fundamental score of 85. The company demonstrates solid financial health with positive ROIC versus WACC spread and consistent buybacks.
Key Risk
A key risk is the relatively low ROIC versus WACC spread, which could limit sustainable value creation if it does not improve.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.48%5 Year CAGR: 16.83%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$11,884$10,338$9,141$4,495$5,541$5,461$5,799$5,562$5,452$4,613$4,306$3,919$3,524$4,449$3,339$2,175$3,851$4,490$4,201$5,707$5,216

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Allstate Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Allstate CorporationFinancial Services

The Allstate Corporation, along with its affiliated entities, provides a comprehensive suite of property, casualty, and other insurance offerings throughout the United States and Canada. The company's operations are structured across four primary business segments: Allstate Protection; Protection Services; Allstate Health and Benefits; and Run-off Property-Liability. The Allstate Protection segment delivers a wide array of personal and commercial insurance solutions. This includes standard private passenger auto and homeowners policies, as well as specialized vehicle coverage for motorcycles, trailers, motor homes, and off-road vehicles. Additional personal lines encompass renter, condominium, landlord, boat, umbrella, manufactured home, and stand-alone scheduled personal property policies. Commercial lines products are also available, marketed under the Allstate and Encompass brand names. The Protection Services division focuses on consumer protection and related financial services. Its offerings include product protection plans and technical assistance for mobile phones, consumer electronics, furniture, and appliances. It also provides finance and insurance products such as vehicle service contracts, guaranteed asset protection (GAP) waivers, road hazard tire and wheel protection, and paint and fabric protection. Furthermore, this segment delivers roadside assistance, device and mobile data collection, advanced data and analytical insights leveraging automotive telematics, and identity protection services. Key brands within this segment include Allstate Protection Plans, Allstate Dealer Services, Allstate Roadside Services, Arity, and Allstate Identity Protection. The Allstate Health and Benefits segment specializes in various health-related insurance products, including life, accident, critical illness, short-term disability, and other health coverage options. Finally, the Run-off Property-Liability segment manages existing property and casualty insurance obligations. Allstate's products are distributed through a diverse network of channels, which include call centers, captive agents, financial specialists, independent agents, brokers, wholesale partners, and affinity groups, as well as directly via online platforms and mobile applications. The Allstate Corporation was founded in 1931 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.