Market Pulse44Neutral

Ally Financial Inc.Opportunity Rank #58(ALLY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$45.57

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$45.57
Price
$195.79
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 330%MOS: $156.63

Fundamental Score

63/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

51/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

65/100
Constructive

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) is estimated at $195.79 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $45.57, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -2.99% long-term growth rate and a 13.50% discount rate (calculated: 21.30%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) is estimated at $195.79 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $45.57, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -2.99% long-term growth rate and a 13.50% discount rate (calculated: 21.30%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$195.79
329.65% upside
20% margin of safety: $156.63
Years: 10Growth Rate: -2.99%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.42%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

63/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
329.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
59.7% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.4% vs WACC 11.0% (0.4x)
20
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

51/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (2nd pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 75%Updated: 39m ago
Sources: 30 (23 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
19 news sentiment+0.1
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
7 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

65/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-3.2%
Price vs 50 EMA+6.0%
Price vs 21 EMA+4.0%
Price vs 21 EMA73 · +4.0%
Price vs 50 EMA76 · +6.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA65 · +1.8%
3M RS vs SPY65 · +3.8%
6M RS vs SPY27 · -8.8%
Distance from 52W High94 · -3.2%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 57%
Thesis
Ally Financial Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 366% above its current price, supported by strong free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's healthy buybacks and stable narrative trend suggest potential for value realization.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's returns on invested capital remaining below its weighted average cost of capital, which could limit value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -2.99%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.97%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$8,333$7,903$7,988$7,316$9,779$9,162$8,059$8,073$7,859$8,131$7,841$9,796$13,287$11,697$12,493$12,021$15,158-$4,400$24,639$18,728$3,557

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Ally Financial Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Ally Financial Inc.Financial Services

Ally Financial Inc. operates as a digital-first financial services provider, offering a comprehensive suite of products and services to individual consumers, commercial enterprises, and corporate clients. Its primary operational footprint spans the United States and Canada. The company is structured into four main operating segments: 1. Automotive Finance Operations: This segment specializes in vehicle financing solutions. Offerings include retail installment sales contracts, loans, and operating leases for consumers, as well as term loans for dealerships. It also facilitates dealer floorplan financing, other lines of credit for dealers, warehouse lines for automotive retailers, and fleet financing. Furthermore, this division provides funding for companies and municipalities purchasing or leasing vehicles and offers vehicle remarketing services. 2. Insurance Operations: Through this segment, Ally provides consumer finance protection and various insurance products via the automotive dealer channel. It also extends commercial insurance products directly to dealerships. Key offerings include vehicle service and maintenance contracts, guaranteed asset protection (GAP) products, and underwriting for commercial coverages, primarily safeguarding dealers' vehicle inventory. 3. Mortgage Finance Operations: This division oversees a portfolio of consumer mortgage loans. Its activities encompass the bulk acquisition of jumbo and low-to-moderate income mortgage loans originated by third parties, alongside direct-to-consumer mortgage offerings. 4. Corporate Finance Operations: This segment delivers senior secured leveraged cash flow loans and asset-based lending solutions to middle-market companies. It also provides other leveraged loans and commercial real estate products, particularly catering to firms within the healthcare industry. Beyond its core segments, Ally Financial Inc. also furnishes a variety of commercial banking products and services, alongside securities brokerage and investment advisory services. The company, founded in 1919 and based in Detroit, Michigan, was previously known as GMAC Inc. before officially changing its name to Ally Financial Inc. in May 2010.