Market Pulse50Neutral

Ally Financial Inc.Opportunity Rank #155(ALLY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$39.22

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$39.22
Price
$126.51
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 223%MOS: $101.21

Fundamental Score

45/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) is estimated at $126.51 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $39.22, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -3.06% long-term growth rate and a 13.50% discount rate (calculated: 22.30%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) is estimated at $126.51 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $39.22, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -3.06% long-term growth rate and a 13.50% discount rate (calculated: 22.30%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$126.51
222.57% upside
20% margin of safety: $101.21
Years: 10Growth Rate: -3.06%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.41%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

45/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
222.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
66.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.4% vs WACC 11.0% (0.2x)
11
Net Debt / FCF
1.5x net debt to FCF
46
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-0.1% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (48th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 78%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 31 (25 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
6 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
17 news sentiment+0.1
Restructuring+0.0
Earnings beat-0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 14h ago
WATCHConfidence: 48%
Thesis
Ally Financial Inc. is currently trading at a significant discount with an estimated fair value 221% above its current price, supported by a healthy free cash flow yield of 66.1%. However, its returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital, indicating operational challenges despite the valuation upside.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital (ROIC) significantly underperforming its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which may hinder value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -3.06%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -1.37%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$8,016$7,903$7,988$7,316$9,779$9,162$8,059$8,073$7,859$8,131$7,841$9,796$13,287$11,697$12,493$12,021$15,158-$4,400$24,639$18,728$3,557

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Ally Financial Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Ally Financial Inc.Financial Services

Ally Financial Inc., a digital financial-services company, provides various digital financial products and services to consumer, commercial, and corporate customers primarily in the United States and Canada. It operates through four segments: Automotive Finance Operations, Insurance Operations, Mortgage Finance Operations, and Corporate Finance Operations. The Automotive Finance Operations segment offers automotive financing services, including providing retail installment sales contracts, loans and operating leases, term loans to dealers, financing dealer floorplans and other lines of credit to dealers, warehouse lines to automotive retailers, and fleet financing. It also provides financing services to companies and municipalities for the purchase or lease of vehicles, and vehicle-remarketing services. The Insurance Operations segment offers consumer finance protection and insurance products through the automotive dealer channel, and commercial insurance products directly to dealers. This segment provides vehicle service and maintenance contract, and guaranteed asset protection products; and underwrites commercial insurance coverages, which primarily insure dealers' vehicle inventory. The Mortgage Finance Operations segment manages consumer mortgage loan portfolio that includes bulk purchases of jumbo and low-to-moderate income mortgage loans originated by third parties, as well as direct-to-consumer mortgage offerings. The Corporate Finance Operations segment provides senior secured leveraged cash flow and asset-based loans to middle market companies; leveraged loans; and commercial real estate product to serve companies in the healthcare industry. The company also offers commercial banking products and services. In addition, it provides securities brokerage and investment advisory services. The company was formerly known as GMAC Inc. and changed its name to Ally Financial Inc. in May 2010. Ally Financial Inc. was founded in 1919 and is based in Detroit, Michigan.