Market Pulse44Neutral

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Opportunity Rank #179(AMD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$551.63

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$551.63
Price
$95.54
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 83%MOS: $76.43

Fundamental Score

36/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

81/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

99/100
Strong

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is estimated at $95.54 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $551.63, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.07% long-term growth rate and a 12.00% discount rate (calculated: 12.13%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is estimated at $95.54 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $551.63, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.07% long-term growth rate and a 12.00% discount rate (calculated: 12.13%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$95.54
-82.68% downside
20% margin of safety: $76.43
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.07%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.88%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

36/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
82.7% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.2% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.9% vs WACC 7.0% (0.3x)
13
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
51.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

81/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (83rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 245 (200 News · 45 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
176 news sentiment+8.4
6 upgrade headlines+0.6
15 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
2 earnings beat-0.2
5 analyst upgrades+0.1
Layoffs+0.0

Trend Details

99/100
StrongAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+159.2%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+167.6%
Distance from 52-Week High0.0%
Price vs 21 EMA94 · +11.5%
Price vs 50 EMA99 · +28.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA99 · +15.5%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +159.2%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +167.6%
Distance from 52W High100 · 0.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 78%
Thesis
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 78% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital. Despite a stable and somewhat supportive narrative score, the company's financial metrics indicate bearish conditions.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that AMD's returns on invested capital remain below its weighted average cost of capital, which could continue to pressure its valuation and financial performance.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.40%5 Year CAGR: 23.26%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$10,876$8,683$3,677$2,213$4,015$3,822$1,365$710$197$181$167-$141-$3-$64-$205$632-$264$939-$68$1,375$3,144

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Technology

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), established in 1969 and headquartered in Santa Clara, California, operates as a global leader in the semiconductor industry. The company organizes its extensive operations into two primary segments: Computing and Graphics, and Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom. In its Computing and Graphics division, AMD develops a range of products including x86 microprocessors (often as accelerated processing units), chipsets, and various graphics processing units (GPUs), encompassing discrete, integrated, data center, and professional variants, alongside providing development services. The Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment focuses on server and embedded processors, bespoke System-on-Chip (SoC) products, and foundational technology for popular game consoles, also offering associated development support. AMD's diverse product lineup features processors for desktop and notebook personal computers under well-known brands such as AMD Ryzen, Ryzen PRO, Ryzen Threadripper, Threadripper PRO, AMD Athlon, Athlon PRO, AMD FX, AMD A-Series, and PRO A-Series. Discrete GPUs for these PCs are offered through the AMD Radeon graphics and AMD Embedded Radeon graphics brands, while professional graphics solutions include AMD Radeon Pro and AMD FirePro. Furthermore, the company provides high-performance accelerators for servers, including Radeon Instinct, Radeon PRO V-series, and AMD Instinct, along with AMD EPYC microprocessors designed for server environments. Its embedded processor solutions span multiple brands, such as AMD Athlon, AMD Geode, AMD Ryzen, AMD EPYC, AMD R-Series, and G-Series. AMD also produces chipsets under its own trademark and crafts customer-specific solutions leveraging its CPU, GPU, and multimedia expertise, including specialized semi-custom SoC products. AMD reaches its wide array of clients, which comprise original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), public cloud service providers, original design manufacturers (ODMs), system integrators, independent distributors, online retailers, and add-in-board manufacturers. The company's sales and distribution network includes its direct sales force, independent distributors, and dedicated sales representatives.