Market Pulse44Neutral

Amentum Holdings, Inc.Opportunity Rank #168(AMTM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$21.06

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$21.06
Price
$41.84
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 99%MOS: $33.47

Fundamental Score

39/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

59/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

7/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) is estimated at $41.84 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $21.06, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.38% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.99%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) is estimated at $41.84 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $21.06, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.38% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.99%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$41.84
98.67% upside
20% margin of safety: $33.47
Years: 10Growth Rate: 14.38%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
0.97%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

39/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
98.7% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
9.3% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.0% vs WACC 9.0% (0.1x)
5
Net Debt / FCF
7.3x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

59/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (77th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 68%Updated: 23m ago
Sources: 21 (15 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
9 news sentiment+0.5
6 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

7/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-36.2%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-37.4%
Price vs 50 EMA-12.6%
Price vs 21 EMA14 · -7.0%
Price vs 50 EMA6 · -12.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA11 · -6.1%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -36.2%
6M RS vs SPY2 · -37.4%
Distance from 52W High12 · -43.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 53%
Thesis
Amentum Holdings, Inc. is currently trading at a significant discount with an estimated fair value over 100% above its current price, but its fundamentals are weak with returns trailing the cost of capital and elevated leverage. Despite the valuation upside, the company's financial health and performance metrics suggest caution.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating it is not generating sufficient returns to cover its cost of capital, compounded by high leverage.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 28.98%5 Year CAGR: 11.46%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021
$480$570$58$79$144$279

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Amentum Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Amentum Holdings, Inc.Industrials

Amentum Holdings, Inc. is a provider of critical, technology-driven services, serving both governmental and commercial sectors. Its operations are structured around two distinct segments: Critical Mission Solutions and Cyber & Intelligence. The Critical Mission Solutions (CMS) segment delivers comprehensive support across various domains. This includes testing, training, and operational oversight for advanced missile defense systems. It also furnishes IT and engineering expertise to both defense organizations and the burgeoning space sector. Moreover, CMS offers technological solutions to energy clients, encompassing installation, decommissioning, and vital environmental remediation efforts, in addition to specialized technical consulting services. Meanwhile, the Cyber & Intelligence (C&I) segment focuses on advanced cyber training and sophisticated data analytics for government professionals. It also deploys cutting-edge communication systems and aerial mapping technologies for national security applications, alongside other specialized technical support for U.S. defense and intelligence agencies. Established on November 26, 2019, the company maintains its corporate headquarters in Chantilly, VA.