Market Pulse59Neutral

Amentum Holdings, Inc.Opportunity Rank #258(AMTM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$24.56

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$24.56
Price
$22.69
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 8%MOS: $18.15

Fundamental Score

26/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

20/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) is estimated at $22.69 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $24.56, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.38% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.10%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Amentum Holdings, Inc. (AMTM) is estimated at $22.69 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $24.56, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.38% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.10%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$22.69
▼ -7.61% downside
20% margin of safety: $18.15
Years: 10Growth Rate: 14.38%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
0.72%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

26/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
7.6% premium to price
37
FCF Yield
5.4% trailing FCF yield
84
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 0.7% vs WACC 10.0% (0.1x)
4
Net Debt / FCF
11.5x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Strengths: FCF Yield. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (15th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 63%Updated: 18h ago
Sources: 18 (14 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
7 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
7 news sentiment+0.0
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

20/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-41.4%
Price vs 50 EMA-9.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-4.6%
Price vs 21 EMA19 · -5.6%
Price vs 50 EMA11 · -9.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA17 · -4.6%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -41.4%
6M RS vs SPY54 · +1.4%
Distance from 52W High31 · -34.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
Amentum Holdings, Inc. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 102% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital. The company also carries elevated leverage at 11.5x net debt to free cash flow, indicating financial risk.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's poor return on invested capital relative to its weighted average cost of capital may persist, preventing value recovery.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 17.95%5 Year CAGR: 2.91%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021
$322$570$58$79$144$279

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Amentum Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Amentum Holdings, Inc.Industrials

Amentum Holdings, Inc. provides mission-critical, technology-driven services in government and commercial markets. It operates through two operating segments: Critical Mission Solutions and Cyber & Intelligence. The Critical Mission Solutions segment provides test, training, and operations services for missile defense systems, IT and engineering services to defense clients and the space sector, technological solutions, including installations, decommissioning, and environmental remediation to energy clients, and other highly technical consulting solutions. The Cyber & Intelligence segment provides advanced cyber training and data analytics for government professionals, advanced communication systems and aerial mapping technologies to national security clients, and other technical services for United States defense and intelligence clients. The company was founded on November 26, 2019 and is headquartered in Chantilly, VA.