Market Pulse44Neutral

Amazon.com, Inc.Opportunity Rank #32(AMZN) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$232.79

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$232.79
Price
$502.44
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 116%MOS: $401.95

Fundamental Score

77/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

37/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is estimated at $502.44 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $232.79, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.57% long-term growth rate and a 10.03% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is estimated at $502.44 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $232.79, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.57% long-term growth rate and a 10.03% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$502.44
115.83% upside
20% margin of safety: $401.95
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.57%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.67%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

77/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
115.8% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
12.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.7% vs WACC 9.0% (0.7x)
37
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
23.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (59th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 54m ago
Sources: 240 (200 News · 40 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
182 news sentiment+8.3
3 upgrade headlines+0.5
Earnings beat+0.2
2 legal risk-0.1
11 regulatory scrutiny-0.1
Promotions/discounting+0.0

Trend Details

37/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Price vs 21 EMA-6.3%
Price vs 50 EMA-6.5%
Distance from 52-Week High-15.3%
Price vs 21 EMA16 · -6.3%
Price vs 50 EMA21 · -6.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA49 · -0.2%
3M RS vs SPY44 · -1.4%
6M RS vs SPY35 · -5.7%
Distance from 52W High69 · -15.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 72%
Thesis
Amazon.com, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 116.9% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and an improving narrative. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's robust free cash flow growth and bullish fundamental score indicate attractive long-term upside.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may pressure returns if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.97%5 Year CAGR: 22.77%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$299,534$271,333$198,876$137,675$110,397$107,380$106,204$55,375$44,150$30,320$25,007$17,426$11,735$8,919$7,965$5,714$4,474$3,666$2,030$1,629$918

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Amazon.com, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Amazon.com, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Amazon.com, Inc. operates a vast global retail enterprise, distributing consumer goods and subscription services through both its extensive online platforms and a network of physical stores across North America and internationally. Its operations are structured into three primary segments: North America, International, and Amazon Web Services (AWS). The company's product offerings encompass both merchandise and content procured for direct resale, alongside items sold by third-party merchants on its platform. Furthermore, the company develops and markets its own range of electronic devices, such as Kindle e-readers, Fire tablets and TVs, Ring, Blink, eero, and Echo products. It also invests in the development and production of original media content. Amazon provides various programs designed to enable independent sellers to offer their products, and empowers authors, musicians, filmmakers, Twitch streamers, and app developers to publish and commercialize their content. Beyond this, it delivers a comprehensive suite of cloud computing solutions, including compute, storage, database, analytics, and machine learning services through AWS. The company also offers fulfillment services, advertising solutions, and digital content subscriptions. A key offering is Amazon Prime, its exclusive membership program. Amazon caters to a wide array of clientele, including individual consumers, third-party sellers, software developers, enterprise clients, content creators, and advertisers. Incorporated in 1994, Amazon.com, Inc. maintains its headquarters in Seattle, Washington.

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