Market Pulse44Neutral

AutoNation, Inc.Opportunity Rank #304(AN) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$188.30

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$188.30
Price
-$100.68
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 153%MOS: -$80.54

Fundamental Score

25/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

57/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

32/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of AutoNation, Inc. (AN) is estimated at $-100.68 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $188.30, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.07% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 5.27%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of AutoNation, Inc. (AN) is estimated at $-100.68 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $188.30, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.07% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 5.27%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$100.68
▼ -153.47% downside
20% margin of safety: -$80.54
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.07%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.06%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

25/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
153.5% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
7.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.1% vs WACC 11.0% (0.2x)
9
Net Debt / FCF
20.8x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-12.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

57/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (84th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 73%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 22 (16 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
11 news sentiment+0.6
Margin pressure+0.0
2 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Earnings miss-0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

32/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-19.7%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-11.0%
Distance from 52-Week High-17.1%
Price vs 21 EMA41 · -1.5%
Price vs 50 EMA36 · -2.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA40 · -1.3%
3M RS vs SPY14 · -11.0%
6M RS vs SPY10 · -19.7%
Distance from 52W High66 · -17.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
AutoNation, Inc. is currently overvalued with an estimated fair value significantly below its market price, supported by weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital. Despite a stable and improving narrative trend, elevated leverage and negative ROIC versus WACC spread weigh heavily on its investment appeal.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's elevated leverage at 20.8x net debt to free cash flow, which could impair financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to market downturns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.07%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -16.27%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$477$421$643$1,134$1,997$1,843$1,364$1,039$912$854$766$765$695$687$494$539$414$445$795$367$478

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates AutoNation, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

AutoNation, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

AutoNation, Inc. functions as an automotive retailer throughout the United States, organizing its operations across three primary segments: Domestic, Import, and Premium Luxury. The company offers a comprehensive array of automotive products and services, including both new and used vehicle sales. Its service portfolio extends to automotive repair and maintenance, wholesale parts supply, and collision services. Additionally, AutoNation provides various automotive finance and insurance products, such as vehicle service agreements and other protective offerings, and facilitates vehicle financing for customers through partnerships with third-party sources. By December 31, 2021, the company's footprint included 339 new vehicle franchises spread across 247 stores, predominantly located in major metropolitan areas within the Sunbelt region. Its infrastructure further comprised 57 AutoNation-branded collision centers, 9 AutoNation USA used vehicle stores, 4 AutoNation-branded automotive auction operations, and 3 parts distribution centers. Founded in 1991, AutoNation, Inc. is headquartered in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.