Market Pulse59Neutral

AppLovin CorporationOpportunity Rank #212(APP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$498.87

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$498.87
Price
$230.06
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 54%MOS: $184.05

Fundamental Score

65/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

51/100
Neutral

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of AppLovin Corporation (APP) is estimated at $230.06 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $498.87, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.19% long-term growth rate and a 12.03% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of AppLovin Corporation (APP) is estimated at $230.06 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $498.87, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.19% long-term growth rate and a 12.03% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$230.06
▼ -53.88% downside
20% margin of safety: $184.05
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.19%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
30.98%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

65/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
53.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.7% trailing FCF yield
16
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 31.0% vs WACC 11.0% (2.8x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
0.2x net debt to FCF
97
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
81.5% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (92nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 146 (122 News · 24 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
92 news sentiment+4.6
Earnings miss-0.6
4 earnings beat+0.5
21 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
2 upgrade headlines+0.5
2 downgrade headlines+0.2

Trend Details

51/100
NeutralAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-32.9%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+8.4%
Distance from 52-Week High-36.1%
Price vs 21 EMA63 · +2.2%
Price vs 50 EMA62 · +2.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA52 · +0.2%
3M RS vs SPY80 · +8.4%
6M RS vs SPY3 · -32.9%
Distance from 52W High28 · -36.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
WATCHConfidence: 41%
Thesis
AppLovin Corporation exhibits strong fundamentals with a ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital and an improving narrative score, indicating operational strength despite its current price being substantially above estimated fair value. The company’s robust free cash flow growth and active buybacks further support its constructive outlook.
Key Risk
The stock is currently priced at a 54% premium to its estimated fair value, posing a significant valuation risk if operational performance or market sentiment deteriorates.
Signals To Watch
  • Price movement to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained ROIC above cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 30.92%5 Year CAGR: 65.12%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018
$4,459$3,999$2,104$1,066$413$363$226$202$140

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates AppLovin Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

AppLovin CorporationTechnology

AppLovin Corporation engages in building a software-based platform for mobile app developers to enhance the marketing and monetization of their apps in the United States and internationally. The company's software solutions include AppDiscovery, a marketing software solution, which matches advertiser demand with publisher supply through auctions; Adjust, an analytics platform that helps marketers grow their mobile apps with solutions for measuring, optimizing campaigns, and protecting user data; and MAX, an in-app bidding software that optimizes the value of an app's advertising inventory by running a real-time competitive auction. Its business clients include various advertisers, publishers, internet platforms, and others. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.