Market Pulse44Neutral

AppLovin CorporationOpportunity Rank #260(APP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$469.39

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$469.39
Price
$230.29
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 51%MOS: $184.23

Fundamental Score

66/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

64/100
Improving

+7 vs previous

Trend Score

26/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of AppLovin Corporation (APP) is estimated at $230.29 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $469.39, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.19% long-term growth rate and a 12.02% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of AppLovin Corporation (APP) is estimated at $230.29 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $469.39, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.19% long-term growth rate and a 12.02% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$230.29
▼ -50.94% downside
20% margin of safety: $184.23
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.19%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
31.55%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

66/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
50.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.8% trailing FCF yield
21
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 31.6% vs WACC 11.0% (2.9x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
0.2x net debt to FCF
97
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
81.5% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

64/100
Improving
+7 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (29th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 1m ago
Sources: 104 (92 News · 12 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
78 news sentiment+1.1
5 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
3 upgrade headlines+0.1
Earnings miss-0.0
4 earnings beat+0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0

Trend Details

26/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-39.4%
Price vs 21 EMA-8.0%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-8.7%
Price vs 21 EMA11 · -8.0%
Price vs 50 EMA22 · -6.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA67 · +2.2%
3M RS vs SPY19 · -8.7%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -39.4%
Distance from 52W High28 · -36.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
WATCHConfidence: 46%
Thesis
AppLovin Corporation exhibits strong fundamentals with a high ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital and constructive free cash flow growth, indicating robust operational efficiency. However, the current market price is substantially above the estimated fair value, suggesting potential overvaluation risk.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the significant overvaluation, as the stock price is 56.7% above the estimated fair value, which could lead to downside pressure if fundamentals or market sentiment deteriorate.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor for the stock price to decline to at least a mid-teens discount to the estimated fair value.
  • Confirm that ROIC remains consistently above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Track narrative and score trends for any meaningful shifts indicating changes in company performance or market perception.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 30.92%5 Year CAGR: 65.12%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018
$4,459$3,999$2,104$1,066$413$363$226$202$140

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates AppLovin Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

AppLovin CorporationTechnology

AppLovin Corporation provides a specialized software platform focused on empowering mobile application developers to enhance the marketing and revenue generation of their products. With operations spanning the United States and international markets, the company assists mobile app developers worldwide. Among its core software offerings is AppDiscovery, a marketing solution that intelligently connects advertiser demand with publisher supply through an auction-based model. Another key product is Adjust, an analytics platform that enables marketers to scale their mobile apps by offering capabilities for performance measurement, campaign optimization, and user data protection. Additionally, MAX is an in-app bidding software engineered to maximize the value derived from an app's advertising inventory by facilitating real-time competitive auctions. Its client base is broad, serving advertisers, publishers, internet platforms, and other stakeholders. Founded in 2011, the enterprise maintains its headquarters in Palo Alto, California.