Market Pulse59Neutral

Amer Sports, Inc.Opportunity Rank #226(AS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$36.49

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$36.49
Price
$29.64
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 19%MOS: $23.71

Fundamental Score

45/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

55/100
Improving

+5 vs previous

Trend Score

51/100
Neutral

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Amer Sports, Inc. (AS) is estimated at $29.64 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $36.49, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.33% long-term growth rate and an 11.65% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Amer Sports, Inc. (AS) is estimated at $29.64 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $36.49, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.33% long-term growth rate and an 11.65% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$29.64
▼ -18.77% downside
20% margin of safety: $23.71
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.33%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.04%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

45/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
18.8% premium to price
19
FCF Yield
4.5% trailing FCF yield
63
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.0% vs WACC 8.0% (0.3x)
13
Net Debt / FCF
1.2x net debt to FCF
55
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
19.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

55/100
Improving
+5 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (69th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 59%Updated: 18h ago
Sources: 12 (9 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
Earnings beat+0.5
3 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
5 news sentiment+0.0
3 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

51/100
NeutralAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-10.8%
Distance from 52-Week High-14.1%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+6.4%
Price vs 21 EMA60 · +1.7%
Price vs 50 EMA59 · +1.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA51 · +0.1%
3M RS vs SPY14 · -10.8%
6M RS vs SPY67 · +6.4%
Distance from 52W High72 · -14.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 63%
Thesis
Amer Sports, Inc. shares appear fully priced relative to the base-case fair value with a current price above fair value, and returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital. The company's fundamentals show a bearish outlook with a negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating value destruction.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company fails to improve its return on invested capital relative to its cost of capital, which could further depress valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend or score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 25.84%5 Year CAGR: 23.38%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020
$955$955$666$338-$4$334$390

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Amer Sports, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Amer Sports, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Amer Sports, Inc. designs, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells sports equipment, apparel, footwear, and accessories in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, China, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through three segments: Technical Apparel, Outdoor Performance, and Ball & Racquet Sports. The Technical Apparel segment offers outdoor apparel, footwear, and accessories under the Arc'teryx and Peak Performance brands. The Outdoor Performance segment provides outdoor apparel, footwear, accessories, and winter sports equipment under the Salomon, Atomic, Armada, and ENVE brands. The Ball & Racquet Sports segment offers sports equipment, apparel, and accessories under the Wilson, DeMarini, Louisville Slugger, EvoShield, and ATEC brands. The company also provides climbing gears, hiking and running footwear, skiing and snowboarding gears, functional athletic apparel, and lifestyle footwear, as well as sporting equipment for tennis, baseball, American football, basketball, golf, and various other professional and recreational sports. It sells its products through its retail stores, general sporting goods retailers, specialty stores, independently operated partner stores, and distributors, as well as its e-commerce websites, and retailer-owned and third-party e-commerce websites. The company was formerly known as Amer Sports Management Holding (Cayman) Limited and changed its name to Amer Sports, Inc. in August 2023. Amer Sports, Inc. was founded in 1950 and is based in Helsinki, Finland.