ASML Holding N.V.Opportunity Rank #192(ASML) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)
Current Price
$1,929.25
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026
Price vs Intrinsic Value
Fundamental Score
Weighted across 6 signals
Narrative Score
No change vs previous
Trend Score
As of 2026-06-22
The intrinsic value of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) is estimated at $674.30 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,929.25, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.16% long-term growth rate and a 10.21% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.
The intrinsic value of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) is estimated at $674.30 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,929.25, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.16% long-term growth rate and a 10.21% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.Valuation Details
Capital Efficiency
The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.
Fundamental Details
Narrative Details
Trend Details
Investment Coach
- Watch for the stock price to move to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
- Confirm that ROIC remains above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
- Monitor the narrative score for meaningful shifts, especially any improvement or further deterioration.
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value
Intrinziq estimates ASML Holding N.V.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.
ASML Holding N.V.Technology
ASML Holding N.V., founded in 1984 and based in Veldhoven, the Netherlands, is a leading provider of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment for chipmakers. Known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. until its name change in 2001, the company is involved in the design, production, sales, marketing, and servicing of these critical systems. Its comprehensive product lineup includes sophisticated lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. ASML's lithography offerings feature cutting-edge extreme ultraviolet (EUV) systems, as well as deep ultraviolet (DUV) solutions, encompassing both immersion and dry technologies, engineered to facilitate the creation of a wide array of semiconductor nodes and technologies. The company also delivers specialized metrology and inspection tools, such as its YieldStar optical metrology systems for assessing pattern quality on silicon wafers, and HMI electron beam solutions for precisely locating and analyzing individual defects in chips. Furthermore, ASML provides computational lithography solutions and software for controlling its lithography systems. Its service portfolio includes refurbishing and upgrading existing equipment, alongside extensive customer support. ASML maintains a significant global presence, operating across key regions including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, the wider Asian market, the Netherlands, other European countries, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States.