Market Pulse44Neutral

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.Opportunity Rank #139(ASTS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$73.19

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$73.19
Price
$75.95
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 4%MOS: $60.76

Fundamental Score

51/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

22/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) is estimated at $75.95 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $73.19, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.27% long-term growth rate and an 11.17% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) is estimated at $75.95 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $73.19, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.27% long-term growth rate and an 11.17% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$75.95
▲ 3.77% upside
20% margin of safety: $60.76
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.27%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-13.28%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

51/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
3.8% discount to price
56
FCF Yield
3.7% trailing FCF yield
44
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -13.3% vs WACC 9.0% (-1.5x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
171.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (96th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 24m ago
Sources: 156 (152 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
117 news sentiment+2.9
24 regulatory scrutiny+1.4
2 upgrade headlines+0.7
Downgrade headlines-0.1
6 earnings miss-0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0

Trend Details

22/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-33.4%
Price vs 21 EMA-19.0%
Price vs 50 EMA-18.9%
Price vs 21 EMA1 · -19.0%
Price vs 50 EMA1 · -18.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA51 · +0.2%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -33.4%
6M RS vs SPY70 · +7.4%
Distance from 52W High10 · -45.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 56%
Thesis
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. exhibits weak fundamentals with returns trailing its cost of capital, and its valuation is near fair value, suggesting investors should be patient. However, the improving narrative score indicates some positive momentum.
Key Risk
The company's negative spread between ROIC and WACC poses a significant risk to value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 47.34%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 308.76%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018
$1,115$993$48-$30-$99-$25$8$3-$5

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates AST SpaceMobile, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc.Technology

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. establishes and operates a satellite-based cellular broadband network designed to connect directly with standard mobile phones. Through its SpaceMobile service, it delivers mobile internet access to individuals in remote or unserved locations that lack traditional terrestrial mobile coverage, whether on land, across oceans, or during air travel. The company is situated in Midland, Texas.