Market Pulse59Neutral

AeroVironment, Inc.Opportunity Rank #316(AVAV) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$168.18

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$168.18
Price
-$10.58
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 106%MOS: -$8.46

Fundamental Score

19/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

57/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

8/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) is estimated at $-10.58 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $168.18, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -26.00% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.50%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) is estimated at $-10.58 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $168.18, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -26.00% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.50%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$10.58
▼ -106.29% downside
20% margin of safety: -$8.46
Years: 10Growth Rate: -26.00%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
0.54%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

19/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
106.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-1.8% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 0.5% vs WACC 7.0% (0.1x)
4
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-65.0% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

57/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (33rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 112 (94 News · 18 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
79 news sentiment+0.5
8 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
2 upgrade headlines+0.1
Legal risk+0.0
2 downgrade headlines-0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Trend Details

8/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-58.9%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-41.4%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-60.9%
Price vs 21 EMA7 · -9.7%
Price vs 50 EMA2 · -17.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA5 · -8.7%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -41.4%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -60.9%
Distance from 52W High0 · -58.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
AeroVironment, Inc. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 108.5% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. The company's returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor capital efficiency and financial health.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the continued deterioration of financial performance, particularly if the company fails to improve its return on invested capital relative to its weighted average cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the company narrative and fundamental score
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -25.85%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -66.90%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
-$153$21$40$26$13$98$36$28$79-$1$7$45$37$37$34$44$47$53$23$18$18

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates AeroVironment, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

AeroVironment, Inc.Industrials

AeroVironment, Inc. designs, develops, produces, delivers, and supports a portfolio of robotic systems and related services for government agencies and businesses in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), Tactical Missile System (TMS), Medium Unmanned Aircraft Systems (MUAS), and High Altitude Pseudo-Satellite Systems (HAPS). The company supplies UAS, TMS, unmanned ground vehicle, and related services primarily to organizations within the U.S. Department of Defense and to international allied governments. It also designs, engineers, tools, and manufactures unmanned aerial and aircraft systems, including airborne platforms, payloads and payload integration, ground control systems, and ground support equipment and other items and services related to unmanned aircraft systems. In addition, the company offers small UAS products, including spare equipment, alternative payload modules, batteries, chargers, repair services, and customer support, as well as multiple aircraft, hand-held ground control system, and spare parts and accessories. Further, it develops high-altitude pseudo-satellite UAS systems. The company was incorporated in 1971 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.