Market Pulse59Neutral

American Express CompanyOpportunity Rank #44(AXP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$318.72

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$318.72
Price
$395.12
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 24%MOS: $316.10

Fundamental Score

80/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

33/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of American Express Company (AXP) is estimated at $395.12 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $318.72, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.45% long-term growth rate and a 10.22% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of American Express Company (AXP) is estimated at $395.12 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $318.72, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.45% long-term growth rate and a 10.22% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$395.12
▲ 23.97% upside
20% margin of safety: $316.10
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.45%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
8.78%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

80/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
24.0% discount to price
90
FCF Yield
9.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 8.8% vs WACC 11.0% (0.8x)
40
Net Debt / FCF
0.3x net debt to FCF
94
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
23.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (80th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 99%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 193 (180 News · 13 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
137 news sentiment+3.6
3 earnings beat+0.2
Upgrade headlines+0.1
39 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
13 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

33/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-18.8%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-22.5%
Distance from 52-Week High-17.9%
Price vs 21 EMA45 · -0.8%
Price vs 50 EMA43 · -1.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA46 · -0.5%
3M RS vs SPY4 · -18.8%
6M RS vs SPY8 · -22.5%
Distance from 52W High64 · -17.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 69%
Thesis
American Express Company is undervalued with a fair value estimate 24.4% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a robust narrative score. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's free cash flow growth and buyback activity indicate potential for value appreciation.
Key Risk
Returns on invested capital remain below the weighted average cost of capital, posing a risk to sustained profitability improvements.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.45%5 Year CAGR: 4.94%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$20,612$20,853$15,961$20,122$22,934$16,195$7,069$15,277$10,240$14,602$9,599$12,313$12,185$9,553$8,135$11,664$10,175$7,156$9,643$9,422$9,866

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates American Express Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

American Express CompanyFinancial Services

American Express Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides charge and credit payment card products, and travel-related services worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Global Consumer Services Group, Global Commercial Services, and Global Merchant and Network Services. Its products and services include payment and financing products; network services; accounts payable expense management products and services; and travel and lifestyle services. The company's products and services also comprise merchant acquisition and processing, servicing and settlement, point-of-sale marketing, and information products and services for merchants; and fraud prevention services, as well as the design and operation of customer loyalty programs. It sells its products and services to consumers, small businesses, mid-sized companies, and large corporations through mobile and online applications, third-party vendors and business partners, direct mail, telephone, in-house sales teams, and direct response advertising. American Express Company was founded in 1850 and is headquartered in New York, New York.