Market Pulse44Neutral

American Express CompanyOpportunity Rank #56(AXP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$338.07

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$338.07
Price
$400.98
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 19%MOS: $320.78

Fundamental Score

79/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

70/100
Strong

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

57/100
Constructive

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of American Express Company (AXP) is estimated at $400.98 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $338.07, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.45% long-term growth rate and a 10.11% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of American Express Company (AXP) is estimated at $400.98 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $338.07, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.45% long-term growth rate and a 10.11% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$400.98
18.61% upside
20% margin of safety: $320.78
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.45%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
8.78%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

79/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
18.6% discount to price
81
FCF Yield
8.9% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 8.8% vs WACC 11.0% (0.8x)
40
Net Debt / FCF
0.3x net debt to FCF
94
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
23.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

70/100
Strong
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (28th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 87%Updated: 41m ago
Sources: 134 (123 News · 11 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
111 news sentiment+1.9
9 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Macro headwinds+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
Earnings miss+0.0
11 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

57/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-20.9%
Distance from 52-Week High-12.2%
Price vs 50 EMA+5.6%
Price vs 21 EMA75 · +4.5%
Price vs 50 EMA75 · +5.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA59 · +1.1%
3M RS vs SPY48 · -0.4%
6M RS vs SPY9 · -20.9%
Distance from 52W High76 · -12.2%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 69%
Thesis
American Express Company is undervalued with a fair value estimate 27.4% above the current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a bullish score of 81. Despite trailing returns relative to the cost of capital, the company shows robust free cash flow growth and effective buybacks.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently below the cost of capital, which could pressure valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.45%5 Year CAGR: 4.94%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$20,612$20,853$15,961$20,122$22,934$16,195$7,069$15,277$10,240$14,602$9,599$12,313$12,185$9,553$8,135$11,664$10,175$7,156$9,643$9,422$9,866

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates American Express Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

American Express CompanyFinancial Services

Operating globally, American Express Company and its affiliated entities deliver a comprehensive suite of charge and credit payment card solutions, alongside a variety of travel-related offerings. Its business structure is organized into three primary divisions: the Global Consumer Services Group, Global Commercial Services, and Global Merchant and Network Services. Among its core offerings are diverse payment and financing instruments, robust network infrastructure services, tools for managing accounts payable expenses, and comprehensive travel and lifestyle support. Furthermore, it facilitates merchant services such as acquisition, transaction processing, settlement, and point-of-sale marketing, providing vital information and assistance to businesses. The company also specializes in fraud mitigation and developing and managing customer loyalty initiatives. These products and services are made available to a broad clientele, encompassing individual consumers, small and mid-sized enterprises, and large corporate entities. Distribution channels include digital platforms (mobile and online applications), collaborations with third-party vendors and partners, direct communication methods like mail and telephone, dedicated internal sales forces, and direct response advertising campaigns. Established in 1850, American Express Company maintains its corporate headquarters in New York, New York.