Market Pulse44Neutral

The Boeing CompanyOpportunity Rank #248(BA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$220.83

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$220.83
Price
-$4.56
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 102%MOS: -$3.65

Fundamental Score

35/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

49/100
Neutral

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of The Boeing Company (BA) is estimated at $-4.56 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $220.83, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -19.14% long-term growth rate and an 8.78% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Boeing Company (BA) is estimated at $-4.56 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $220.83, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -19.14% long-term growth rate and an 8.78% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$4.56
-102.06% downside
20% margin of safety: -$3.65
Years: 10Growth Rate: -19.14%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.37%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

35/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
102.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.5% trailing FCF yield
37
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.4% vs WACC 7.0% (0.5x)
24
Net Debt / FCF
4.4x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
646.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (69th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 95%Updated: 4m ago
Sources: 183 (179 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
149 news sentiment+2.6
24 regulatory scrutiny+1.0
4 legal risk-0.1
Product recall-0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

49/100
NeutralAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-12.4%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-3.8%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-1.6%
Price vs 21 EMA48 · -0.4%
Price vs 50 EMA47 · -0.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA49 · -0.1%
3M RS vs SPY43 · -1.6%
6M RS vs SPY39 · -3.8%
Distance from 52W High75 · -12.4%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 76%
Thesis
The Boeing Company is currently overvalued with an estimated fair value significantly below its market price, supported by a bearish fundamental score despite an improving narrative. The company shows weak returns trailing its cost of capital, indicating potential financial underperformance.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may continue to pressure returns and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Watch for the stock price to decline to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Track the ROIC versus WACC spread for signs of sustained improvement.
  • Monitor the narrative score for meaningful shifts that could indicate a change in company outlook.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -19.14%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 510.52%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$6,045$4,007-$9,762$7,487$4,734-$2,436-$17,107-$485$17,113$15,214$13,112$11,813$11,094$10,417$9,218$5,736$4,079$6,789$1,451$11,315$9,180

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Boeing Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Boeing CompanyIndustrials

The Boeing Company is a global aerospace powerhouse specializing in the design, development, manufacture, sale, and comprehensive support of commercial airliners, military aircraft, satellites, missile defense systems, human space flight, and launch technologies, along with related services across the globe. Its operations are organized into four key segments. The Commercial Airplanes division delivers commercial jet aircraft for passenger and cargo transport, alongside essential fleet support services. The Defense, Space & Security segment concentrates on the research, development, production, and modification of manned and unmanned military aircraft, advanced weapons systems, strategic defense and intelligence solutions (including missile defense, command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, cyber, and information solutions), and satellite systems for both governmental and commercial use, encompassing space exploration. The Global Services segment provides a vast array of support, such as supply chain and logistics management, engineering, maintenance, upgrades, spare parts, pilot and maintenance training, technical documentation, and data analytics for its commercial and defense clientele. Lastly, the Boeing Capital segment offers financing services, overseeing a portfolio of equipment under various lease and financing structures. Founded in 1916, the company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.