Market Pulse44Neutral

Alibaba Group Holding LimitedOpportunity Rank #150(BABA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$104.97

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$104.97
Price
$308.06
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 193%MOS: $246.45

Fundamental Score

58/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

75/100
Strong

-2 vs previous

Trend Score

5/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) is estimated at $308.06 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $104.97, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.97% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.22%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) is estimated at $308.06 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $104.97, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.97% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.22%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$308.06
193.47% upside
20% margin of safety: $246.45
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.97%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

58/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
193.5% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
11.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.0% vs WACC 8.0% (0.4x)
19
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-2.9% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

75/100
Strong
-2 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (74th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 99%Updated: 40m ago
Sources: 151 (145 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
16 regulatory scrutiny+0.9
114 news sentiment+0.7
5 upgrade headlines+0.6
Downgrade headlines+0.4
2 margin pressure+0.0
Earnings miss-0.0

Trend Details

5/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-29.0%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-39.5%
Price vs 50 EMA-16.7%
Price vs 21 EMA5 · -11.3%
Price vs 50 EMA3 · -16.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA11 · -6.1%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -29.0%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -39.5%
Distance from 52W High11 · -44.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 57%
Thesis
Alibaba Group Holding Limited is undervalued with an estimated fair value 169% above its current price, supported by healthy free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's strong buyback activity and net debt position enhance its investment appeal.
Key Risk
The company's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential challenges in generating value above its cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.97%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -2.91%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220102009200820072006
$29,746$37,161$32,094$34,619$28,494$39,202$34,246$29,652$21,601$14,768$10,173$7,342$4,869$2,605$1,684$1,684$392$273$229$122

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Alibaba Group Holding Limited's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Alibaba Group Holding LimitedConsumer Cyclical

Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its various subsidiaries, furnishes crucial technological infrastructure and extensive marketing channels. This comprehensive support allows merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses to effectively engage with their customer base, both within the People's Republic of China and across international markets. The company's operations are organized across seven primary segments: China Commerce, International Commerce, Local Consumer Services, Cainiao (its logistics network), Cloud Computing, Digital Media and Entertainment, and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The company's extensive digital ecosystem features premier online retail platforms like Taobao and Tmall. Wholesale business-to-business transactions are facilitated through 1688.com and Alibaba.com. Globally, it operates retail platforms such as AliExpress, Lazada, Trendyol, and Daraz. For fresh goods and groceries, it offers Freshippo, and Tmall Global specializes in import e-commerce. Monetization and advertising solutions are provided via Alimama, its proprietary platform, which offers diverse marketing services including pay-for-performance, in-feed, and display ads, supported by the Taobao Ad Network and Exchange for real-time bidding. Logistics operations are primarily handled by the Cainiao Network. Its local consumer services encompass Ele.me for on-demand food and delivery, Koubei for restaurant and local service directories, and Fliggy for travel booking. Alibaba Cloud offers a wide array of services, including elastic computing, data storage, networking, security, database management, big data analytics, and Internet of Things (IoT) solutions. It also supplies hardware, software licenses, installation, and application development and maintenance. The digital media and entertainment division includes Youku, an online video platform; Quark, an information search and content consumption tool; and Alibaba Pictures, collectively offering diverse content spanning films, live events, news feeds, literature, and music. Its innovation portfolio further extends to Amap, a mobile application for digital mapping and navigation; DingTalk, a business communication and efficiency platform; the Tmall Genie smart speaker; and Qwen, an advanced artificial intelligence chatbot. Founded in 1999, Alibaba Group is headquartered in Hangzhou, People's Republic of China.