BABA

$157.76

Public overview and default valuation.

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Valuation Details
Default assumptions: 10Y forecast, 9% market return, 2.5% terminal growth, 7.78% trendline growth.
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$669.98

With 20% Margin of Safety (MoS):

$535.98
239.75% upside
Capital Efficiency
Average Quarterly ROIC
3.92%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.
Fundamental Score
59
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
239.8% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
10.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.9% vs WACC 8.0% (0.5x)
25
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
1.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.
Narrative Score
80
Strong
Weighted across 6 recent drivers · Last 30 days+1 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline: High (100th pct)
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 95%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 207 (News 200 · Analyst 7)
Drivers
151 news sentiment+2.3
5 upgrade headlines+0.4
Guidance raise+0.3
34 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
3 margin pressure+0.1
3 downgrade headlines-0.0
Other Metrics
P/E23.7
Profit Margin12.2%
Owner Earnings$36.49b
One Dollar Premise26.00%
Debt/Equity0.74
Current Ratio1.48
PEG-1.403
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
2006200720082009201020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
$119$223$266$382$1,643$1,643$2,541$4,748$7,159$9,920$14,402$21,065$28,916$33,395$38,229$27,786$33,759$31,297$36,504
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Alibaba Group Holding Limited's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Alibaba Group Holding LimitedConsumer Cyclical

Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to help merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses to engage with their users and customers in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through seven segments: China Commerce, International Commerce, Local Consumer Services, Cainiao, Cloud, Digital Media and Entertainment, and Innovation Initiatives and Others. It operates Taobao and Tmall, which are digital retail platforms; Alimama, a proprietary monetization platform; 1688.com and Alibaba.com, which are online wholesale marketplaces; AliExpress, a retail marketplace; Lazada, Trendyol, and Daraz that are e-commerce platforms; Freshippo, a retail platform for groceries and fresh goods; and Tmall Global, an import e-commerce platform. The company also operates Cainiao Network logistic services platform; Ele.me, an on-demand delivery and local services platform; Koubei, a restaurant and local services guide platform; and Fliggy, an online travel platform. In addition, it offers pay-for-performance, in-feed, and display marketing services; and Taobao Ad Network and Exchange, a real-time online bidding marketing exchange. Further, the company provides elastic computing, storage, network, security, database, big data, and IoT services; and hardware, software license, software installation, and application development and maintenance services. Additionally, it operates Youku, an online video platform; Quark, a platform for information search, storage, and consumption; Alibaba Pictures and other content platforms that provide online videos, films, live events, news feeds, literature, music, and others; Amap, a mobile digital map, navigation, and real-time traffic information app; DingTalk, a business efficiency mobile app; Tmall Genie smart speaker; and Qwen, an artificial intelligence chatbot. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.

Last updated: Feb 06, 2026
Data sources: Financial Modeling Prep
This valuation is based on assumptions and publicly available data. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.