Market Pulse59Neutral

TopBuild Corp.Opportunity Rank #81(BLD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$428.03

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$428.03
Price
$545.10
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 27%MOS: $436.08

Fundamental Score

67/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

61/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

43/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of TopBuild Corp. (BLD) is estimated at $545.10 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $428.03, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.83% long-term growth rate and a 10.25% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of TopBuild Corp. (BLD) is estimated at $545.10 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $428.03, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.83% long-term growth rate and a 10.25% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$545.10
▲ 27.35% upside
20% margin of safety: $436.08
Years: 10Growth Rate: 10.83%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.63%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

67/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
27.4% discount to price
96
FCF Yield
6.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.6% vs WACC 10.0% (0.4x)
18
Net Debt / FCF
3.2x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
15.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

61/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (81st pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 91%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 53 (40 News · 13 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
30 news sentiment+1.4
4 analyst downgrades-0.6
5 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
5 legal risk+0.0
9 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

43/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-24.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+1.3%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-3.3%
Price vs 21 EMA52 · +0.3%
Price vs 50 EMA58 · +1.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA61 · +1.3%
3M RS vs SPY2 · -24.1%
6M RS vs SPY41 · -3.3%
Distance from 52W High55 · -22.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
TopBuild Corp. is attractively valued with an estimated fair value 39.4% above the current price and demonstrates strong fundamentals including a healthy free cash flow yield of 6.8%. The company's narrative score is strong and improving, supported by constructive fundamentals and consistent buybacks.
Key Risk
The key risk is that returns are currently trailing the estimated cost of capital, indicating potential challenges in generating sufficient economic profit.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 10.83%5 Year CAGR: 12.45%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$825$816$845$913$572$459$399$317$220$139$91$70$85$39-$91

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates TopBuild Corp.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

TopBuild Corp.Industrials

TopBuild Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the installation and distribution of insulation and other building products to the construction industry. The company operates in two segments, Installation and Specialty Distribution. It provides insulation products and accessories, glass and windows, rain gutters, afterpaint products, fireproofing products, garage doors, fireplaces, closet shelving, roofing materials, and other products; and insulation installation services. The company also offers various services and tools to assist builders in applying the principles of building science to new home construction, which include pre-construction plan reviews, diagnostic testing, and various inspection services; and home energy rating services. In addition, it distributes building and mechanical insulation, insulation accessories, and other building product materials for the residential, commercial, and industrial end markets. The company serves single-family homebuilders, single-family custom builders, multi-family builders, commercial general contractors, remodelers, and individual homeowners, as well as insulation contractors, gutter contractors, weatherization contractors, other contractors, dealers, metal building erectors, and modular home builders. It operates approximately 235 installation branches and 175 distribution centers in the United States and Canada. The company was formerly known as Masco SpinCo Corp. and changed its name to TopBuild Corp. in March 2015. TopBuild Corp. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Daytona Beach, Florida.