Market Pulse53Neutral

BlackRock, Inc.Opportunity Rank #278(BLK) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$1,037.16

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$1,037.16
Price
$371.61
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 64%MOS: $297.29

Fundamental Score

28/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

81/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

49/100
Neutral

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) is estimated at $371.61 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,037.16, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.12% long-term growth rate and a 9.90% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) is estimated at $371.61 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,037.16, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.12% long-term growth rate and a 9.90% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$371.61
-64.17% downside
20% margin of safety: $297.29
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.12%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.16%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

28/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
64.2% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.7% trailing FCF yield
18
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.2% vs WACC 10.0% (0.3x)
16
Net Debt / FCF
0.7x net debt to FCF
87
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
2.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

81/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (97th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 99%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 166 (153 News · 13 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
33 regulatory scrutiny+3.6
108 news sentiment+3.0
5 earnings beat+0.3
Upgrade headlines+0.3
4 legal risk-0.2
Analyst upgrades+0.1

Trend Details

49/100
NeutralAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-14.6%
Distance from 52-Week High-12.2%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-4.1%
Price vs 21 EMA61 · +1.8%
Price vs 50 EMA61 · +2.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA54 · +0.5%
3M RS vs SPY34 · -4.1%
6M RS vs SPY16 · -14.6%
Distance from 52W High76 · -12.2%

Investment Coach

Updating... 45d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 83%
Thesis
BlackRock, Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 62%, with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital, making it an unattractive investment at present. Despite some narrative improvement, the company's ROIC remains significantly below its WACC, indicating poor capital efficiency.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that BlackRock fails to improve its return on invested capital relative to its weighted average cost of capital, prolonging value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and fundamental score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.12%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -1.97%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$4,370$4,302$5,211$4,509$5,489$5,285$3,937$3,138$3,279$3,983$2,273$3,225$3,147$3,736$2,390$3,073$2,620$1,466$1,993$699$805

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates BlackRock, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

BlackRock, Inc.Financial Services

BlackRock, Inc. is a publicly owned investment manager. The firm primarily provides its services to institutional, intermediary, and individual investors including corporate, public, union, and industry pension plans, insurance companies, third-party mutual funds, endowments, public institutions, governments, foundations, charities, sovereign wealth funds, corporations, official institutions, and banks. It also provides global risk management and advisory services. The firm manages separate client-focused equity, fixed income, and balanced portfolios. It also launches and manages open-end and closed-end mutual funds, offshore funds, unit trusts, and alternative investment vehicles including structured funds. The firm launches equity, fixed income, balanced, and real estate mutual funds. It also launches equity, fixed income, balanced, currency, commodity, and multi-asset exchange traded funds. The firm also launches and manages hedge funds. It invests in the public equity, fixed income, real estate, currency, commodity, and alternative markets across the globe. The firm primarily invests in growth and value stocks of small-cap, mid-cap, SMID-cap, large-cap, and multi-cap companies. It also invests in dividend-paying equity securities. The firm invests in investment grade municipal securities, government securities including securities issued or guaranteed by a government or a government agency or instrumentality, corporate bonds, and asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities. It employs fundamental and quantitative analysis with a focus on bottom-up and top-down approach to make its investments. The firm employs liquidity, asset allocation, balanced, real estate, and alternative strategies to make its investments. In real estate sector, it seeks to invest in Poland and Germany. The firm benchmarks the performance of its portfolios against various S&P, Russell, Barclays, MSCI, Citigroup, and Merrill Lynch indices. BlackRock, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is based in New York, New York with additional offices in Atlanta, Georgia; Boston, Massachusetts; Chicago, Illinois; Dallas, Texas; Denver, Colorado; Greenwich, Connecticut; Houston, Texas; Miami, Florida; Newport Beach, California; Palo Alto, California; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Princeton, New Jersey; San Francisco, California; Santa Monica, California; Seattle, Washington; Washington, DC; West Palm Beach, Florida; Wilmington, Delaware; Mexico; Canada; South Africa; Netherlands; Greece; Serbia; Belgium; Hungary; Denmark; Ireland; Scotland; Germany; Switzerland; England; Luxembourg; Spain; Italy; France; Sweden; Austria; India; China; Australia; Hong Kong; South Korea; Singapore; Taiwan; Japan; Colombia; Argentina; Peru; Chile; Brazil; UAE; Saudi Arabia; Israel.