Market Pulse59Neutral

Blackstone Inc.Opportunity Rank #267(BX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$123.77

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$123.77
Price
$65.40
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 47%MOS: $52.32

Fundamental Score

31/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

64/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

36/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Blackstone Inc. (BX) is estimated at $65.40 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $123.77, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.60% long-term growth rate and a 10.42% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Blackstone Inc. (BX) is estimated at $65.40 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $123.77, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.60% long-term growth rate and a 10.42% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$65.40
-47.16% downside
20% margin of safety: $52.32
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.60%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
8.15%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

31/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
47.2% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.4% trailing FCF yield
10
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 8.2% vs WACC 11.0% (0.7x)
37
Net Debt / FCF
2.9x net debt to FCF
2
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
11.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
85
Strengths: FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

64/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (39th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 127 (112 News · 15 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
94 news sentiment+0.8
13 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
2 earnings beat+0.1
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Macro headwinds+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Trend Details

36/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-23.1%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-11.4%
Distance from 52-Week High-34.4%
Price vs 21 EMA56 · +1.0%
Price vs 50 EMA55 · +1.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA50 · -0.0%
3M RS vs SPY13 · -11.4%
6M RS vs SPY7 · -23.1%
Distance from 52W High31 · -34.4%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 83%
Thesis
Blackstone Inc. is currently overvalued with its market price approximately 40% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital. The company's financial metrics indicate bearish conditions and a broken narrative trend, suggesting limited near-term upside.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that Blackstone fails to improve its return on invested capital relative to its weighted average cost of capital, which could further depress valuation and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.60%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -1.22%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$3,594$1,976$3,543$4,281$6,572$4,050$2,048$2,023$64-$2,424-$67$2,456$1,685$3,574$620$1,136-$318$435$1,941-$818-$4,372

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Blackstone Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Blackstone Inc.Financial Services

Blackstone Inc. is an alternative asset management firm specializing in real estate, private equity, hedge fund solutions, credit, secondary funds of funds, public debt and equity and multi-asset class strategies. The firm typically invests in early-stage companies. It also provide capital markets services. The real estate segment specializes in opportunistic, core+ investments as well as debt investment opportunities collateralized by commercial real estate, and stabilized income-oriented commercial real estate across North America, Europe and Asia. The firm's corporate private equity business pursues transactions throughout the world across a variety of transaction types, including large buyouts,special situations, distressed mortgage loans, mid-cap buyouts, buy and build platforms, which involves multiple acquisitions behind a single management team and platform, and growth equity/development projects involving significant majority stakes in portfolio companies and minority investments in operating companies, shipping, real estate, corporate or consumer loans, and alternative energy greenfield development projects in energy and power, property, dislocated markets, shipping opportunities, financial institution breakups, re-insurance, and improving freight mobility, financial services, healthcare, life sciences, enterprise tech and consumer, as well as consumer technologies. The firm considers investment in Asia and Latin America. It has a three year investment period. Its hedge fund business manages a broad range of commingled and customized fund solutions and its credit business focuses on loans, and securities of non-investment grade companies spread across the capital structure including senior debt, subordinated debt, preferred stock and common equity. Blackstone Inc. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in New York, New York with additional offices across Asia, Europe and North America.