Market Pulse44Neutral

Blackstone Inc.Opportunity Rank #290(BX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$123.31

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$123.31
Price
$66.65
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 46%MOS: $53.32

Fundamental Score

31/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

63/100
Improving

+1 vs previous

Trend Score

43/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Blackstone Inc. (BX) is estimated at $66.65 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $123.31, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.60% long-term growth rate and a 10.28% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Blackstone Inc. (BX) is estimated at $66.65 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $123.31, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.60% long-term growth rate and a 10.28% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$66.65
-45.95% downside
20% margin of safety: $53.32
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.60%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
8.13%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

31/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
45.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.4% trailing FCF yield
11
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 8.1% vs WACC 11.0% (0.7x)
37
Net Debt / FCF
3.0x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
11.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
85
Strengths: FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

63/100
Improving
+1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (24th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 55m ago
Sources: 105 (93 News · 12 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
84 news sentiment+1.1
9 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Analyst upgrades+0.0
11 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

43/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-30.4%
Distance from 52-Week High-34.7%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-3.2%
Price vs 21 EMA62 · +2.0%
Price vs 50 EMA61 · +2.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA52 · +0.2%
3M RS vs SPY37 · -3.2%
6M RS vs SPY3 · -30.4%
Distance from 52W High31 · -34.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 76%
Thesis
Blackstone Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 39%, with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital despite a supportive and improving narrative. The stock is best avoided at current levels given the bearish fundamental score and negative ROIC versus WACC spread.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company fails to improve its return on invested capital relative to its weighted average cost of capital, prolonging value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.60%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -1.22%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$3,594$1,976$3,543$4,281$6,572$4,050$2,048$2,023$64-$2,424-$67$2,456$1,685$3,574$620$1,136-$318$435$1,941-$818-$4,372

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Blackstone Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Blackstone Inc.Financial Services

Blackstone Inc. operates as a prominent alternative asset manager, specializing in a broad spectrum of investment strategies. Its expertise encompasses real estate, private equity, credit solutions, comprehensive hedge fund offerings, public debt and equity, multi-asset class approaches, and secondary funds of funds. While often backing nascent businesses, the firm also extends its services to capital markets. Its real estate division targets diverse opportunities: high-potential opportunistic ventures, core-plus assets, and stable, income-generating commercial properties. Additionally, it engages in debt investments secured by commercial real estate. These activities span North America, Europe, and Asia. Blackstone's global private equity arm executes varied transactions, including substantial buyouts, mid-market acquisitions, special situations, and distressed mortgage loans. They also manage "buy and build" platforms, which involve consolidating multiple acquisitions under a single management team, alongside growth equity and development projects, often taking significant majority stakes or minority positions in operating companies. The scope of its investments covers sectors like shipping, real estate, corporate and consumer debt, and greenfield alternative energy projects in energy, power, and property development. The firm actively seeks opportunities in dislocated markets, shipping, financial institution breakups, reinsurance, and initiatives aimed at improving freight mobility. Key industry focuses further include financial services, healthcare, life sciences, enterprise technology, and consumer goods, including consumer tech. Beyond these, it actively explores investment prospects across Asia and Latin America, typically maintaining a three-year investment period for its ventures. The hedge fund business provides a broad range of commingled and customized fund solutions. Concurrently, its credit division concentrates on loans and securities issued by non-investment grade entities. These span the entire capital structure, encompassing senior debt, subordinated debt, preferred stock, and common equity. Established in 1985, Blackstone Inc. is headquartered in New York City, with a significant global presence through additional offices throughout Asia, Europe, and North America.