Market Pulse44Neutral

Citigroup Inc.Opportunity Rank #228(C) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$145.67

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$145.67
Price
-$411.23
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 382%MOS: -$328.98

Fundamental Score

19/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

70/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

90/100
Strong

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Citigroup Inc. (C) is estimated at $-411.23 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $145.67, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -81.93% long-term growth rate and a 10.67% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Citigroup Inc. (C) is estimated at $-411.23 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $145.67, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -81.93% long-term growth rate and a 10.67% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$411.23
-382.30% downside
20% margin of safety: -$328.98
Years: 10Growth Rate: -81.93%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.04%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

19/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
382.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-9.8% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.0% vs WACC 11.0% (0.1x)
5
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-81.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

70/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (11th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 41m ago
Sources: 151 (133 News · 18 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
98 news sentiment+1.5
20 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
4 restructuring+0.3
4 legal risk-0.2
4 downgrade headlines+0.2
3 upgrade headlines+0.0

Trend Details

90/100
StrongAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High0.0%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+18.2%
Price vs 50 EMA+12.3%
Price vs 21 EMA86 · +7.4%
Price vs 50 EMA91 · +12.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA82 · +4.6%
3M RS vs SPY95 · +18.2%
6M RS vs SPY90 · +19.8%
Distance from 52W High100 · 0.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 78%
Thesis
Citigroup Inc. is currently overvalued by an estimated 412% with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital despite a supportive and stable narrative score. The company exhibits poor free cash flow growth and a significant negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating financial underperformance.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that Citigroup's fundamental weaknesses persist or worsen, preventing any meaningful recovery in valuation or operational performance.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -81.93%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -89.42%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
-$24,379-$61,112-$13,169-$66,833$30,701$51,209-$20,042-$7,501$40,726-$5,413$56,688$42,935$49,729$66,734-$6,758$68,243$38,049-$52,346$101,466-$67,548$3,870

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Citigroup Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Citigroup Inc.Financial Services

Citigroup Inc. functions as a comprehensive financial holding entity, delivering a broad spectrum of financial offerings and solutions. Its clientele spans individuals, businesses, governmental bodies, and institutional clients across numerous global regions, including North America, Latin America, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and the African continent. The firm's operations are structured into two principal divisions: Global Consumer Banking (GCB) and the Institutional Clients Group (ICG). Through its GCB segment, Citigroup provides conventional banking options to individual retail clients, leveraging services like retail banking, its proprietary Citi-branded credit cards, and Citi retail service programs. This division also extends a variety of banking, credit, loan, and investment products, accessible via an extensive system of physical branches, dedicated offices, and digital platforms. Conversely, the ICG segment caters to corporate entities, institutions, public sector organizations, and affluent individuals with a suite of wholesale banking provisions. These encompass activities such as fixed income and equity sales and trading, foreign currency exchange, prime brokerage, derivatives, market research (both equity and fixed income), corporate financing, investment banking, advisory services, private wealth management, cash flow administration, trade financing, and securities-related offerings. By the close of 2020 (December 31st), the company maintained a network of 2,303 branches, predominantly located within the United States, Mexico, and various Asian markets. Established in 1812, Citigroup Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in New York, New York.