Market Pulse59Neutral

Instacart (Maplebear Inc.)Opportunity Rank #33(CART) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$37.99

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$37.99
Price
$118.78
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 213%MOS: $95.02

Fundamental Score

85/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

59/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

60/100
Constructive

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) (CART) is estimated at $118.78 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $37.99, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.72% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.89%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) (CART) is estimated at $118.78 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $37.99, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.72% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.89%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$118.78
▲ 212.66% upside
20% margin of safety: $95.02
Years: 10Growth Rate: 14.72%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.63%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

85/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
212.7% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
11.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.6% vs WACC 7.0% (0.9x)
47
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
304.7% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

59/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (62nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 42 (33 News · 9 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
6 regulatory scrutiny+0.7
23 news sentiment+0.1
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0
Legal risk-0.0

Trend Details

60/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+9.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+2.4%
Price vs 21 EMA-2.0%
Price vs 21 EMA37 · -2.0%
Price vs 50 EMA52 · +0.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA69 · +2.4%
3M RS vs SPY83 · +9.7%
6M RS vs SPY56 · +2.0%
Distance from 52W High56 · -22.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 74%
Thesis
Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value over 218% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high free cash flow yield and a net cash balance sheet. The company's improving narrative and robust free cash flow growth further reinforce its bullish outlook.
Key Risk
The slight negative spread between ROIC and WACC poses a risk to sustained value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 88.57%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 311.78%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$1,001$1,033$751$642$303-$182-$84-$475

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Instacart (Maplebear Inc.)'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Instacart (Maplebear Inc.)Consumer Cyclical

Maplebear Inc., doing business as Instacart, provides online grocery shopping services to households in North America. The company connects the consumer with a personal shopper to shop and deliver a range of products, such as food, alcohol, consumer health, pet care, ready-made meals, and others. The company offers its services through a mobile application or website. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in San Francisco, California.