CAT

$678.31

Public overview and default valuation.

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Valuation Details
Default assumptions: 10Y forecast, 9% market return, 2.5% terminal growth, 1.60% trendline growth.
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$252.59

With 20% Margin of Safety (MoS):

$202.07
-70.21% downside
Capital Efficiency
Average Quarterly ROIC
4.42%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.
Fundamental Score
37
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
70.2% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
4.2% trailing FCF yield
54
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.4% vs WACC 11.0% (0.4x)
20
Net Debt / FCF
2.5x net debt to FCF
14
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
9.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
72
Strengths: Buybacks, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.
Narrative Score
80
Strong
Weighted across 6 recent drivers · Last 30 daysVs 6-Month Baseline: High (92th pct)
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 90%Updated: 5h ago
Sources: 178 (News 178)
Drivers
119 news sentiment+4.9
Margin pressure+0.3
2 earnings beat+0.2
Restructuring-0.1
54 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0
Other Metrics
P/E35.7
Profit Margin13.1%
Owner Earnings$12.60b
One Dollar Premise31.00%
Debt/Equity3.67
Current Ratio1.37
PEG-11.406
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
$8,474$10,995$8,558$8,971$7,595$10,881$10,260$14,637$11,436$9,960$8,567$8,042$9,474$9,581$8,442$9,670$10,365$15,977$15,250$13,204
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Caterpillar Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Caterpillar Inc.Industrials

Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, and industrial gas turbines worldwide. Its Construction Industries segment offers asphalt pavers, backhoe loaders, compactors, cold planers, compact track and multi-terrain loaders, excavators, motorgraders, pipelayers, road reclaimers, site prep tractors, skid steer loaders, telehandlers, and utility vehicles; mini, small, medium, and large excavators; compact, small, and medium wheel loaders; track-type tractors and loaders; and wheel excavators. The Resource Industries segment provides electric rope shovels, draglines, hydraulic shovels, rotary drills, hard rock vehicles, track-type tractors, mining trucks, longwall miners, wheel loaders, off-highway trucks, articulated trucks, wheel tractor scrapers, wheel dozers, fleet management, landfill compactors, soil compactors, machinery components, autonomous ready vehicles and solutions, select work tools, and safety services and mining performance solutions. The Energy & Transportation segment offers reciprocating engines, generator sets, integrated systems and solutions, turbines and turbine-related services, remanufactured reciprocating engines and components, centrifugal gas compressors, diesel-electric locomotives and components, and other rail-related products and services for marine, oil and gas, industrial, and electric power generation sectors. The company's Financial Products segment provides operating and finance leases, installment sale contracts, working capital loans, and wholesale financing plans; and insurance and risk management products for vehicles, power generation facilities, and marine vessels. The All Other operating segment manufactures filters and fluids, undercarriage, ground engaging tools, etc. The company was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. and changed its name to Caterpillar Inc. in 1986. The company was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.

Last updated: Feb 06, 2026
Data sources: Financial Modeling Prep
This valuation is based on assumptions and publicly available data. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.