Market Pulse53Neutral

CAVA Group, Inc.Opportunity Rank #103(CAVA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$63.21

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$63.21
Price
$81.57
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 29%MOS: $65.26

Fundamental Score

51/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

70/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

9/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) is estimated at $81.57 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $63.21, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.39% long-term growth rate and an 11.11% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) is estimated at $81.57 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $63.21, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.39% long-term growth rate and an 11.11% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$81.57
▲ 29.05% upside
20% margin of safety: $65.26
Years: 10Growth Rate: 14.39%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.82%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

51/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
29.0% discount to price
98
FCF Yield
5.2% trailing FCF yield
80
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.8% vs WACC 8.0% (0.5x)
24
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

70/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (68th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 93%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 70 (52 News · 18 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
45 news sentiment+0.8
2 regulatory scrutiny+0.6
Earnings beat+0.5
3 analyst upgrades+0.1
Margin pressure+0.0
3 upgrade headlines+0.0

Trend Details

9/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-37.7%
Price vs 50 EMA-17.3%
Price vs 21 EMA-11.3%
Price vs 21 EMA5 · -11.3%
Price vs 50 EMA2 · -17.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA9 · -6.7%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -37.7%
6M RS vs SPY18 · -13.4%
Distance from 52W High27 · -36.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 45d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 56%
Thesis
CAVA Group, Inc. currently trades near its fair value with a supportive and improving narrative score, but its fundamentals remain weak as returns lag the cost of capital. Patience is advised given the valuation and narrative strength despite bearish financial metrics.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's inability to improve its return on invested capital above its weighted average cost of capital, which could continue to pressure valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 36.64%5 Year CAGR: 44.88%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021
$382$344$269$236$110$60

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates CAVA Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

CAVA Group, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

CAVA Group, Inc. is a company that oversees and runs a chain of Mediterranean restaurants. Their culinary offerings encompass a range of salads, savory dips, spreads, various toppings, and distinctive dressings. Beyond its dining establishments, the company distributes its products through whole food markets and other grocery retailers. Customers also have the option to utilize online food ordering services for convenience. Founded in 2006, CAVA Group, Inc. maintains its primary business operations in Washington, D.C.