Market Pulse44Neutral

Constellation Energy CorporationOpportunity Rank #278(CEG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Utilities

Current Price

$275.53

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$275.53
Price
$76.15
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 72%MOS: $60.92

Fundamental Score

44/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

67/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

29/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) is estimated at $76.15 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $275.53, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -11.95% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.08%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) is estimated at $76.15 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $275.53, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -11.95% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.08%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$76.15
▼ -72.36% downside
20% margin of safety: $60.92
Years: 10Growth Rate: -11.95%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.9%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

44/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
72.4% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
8.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.9% vs WACC 10.0% (0.4x)
20
Net Debt / FCF
2.7x net debt to FCF
10
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
27.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: FCF Yield, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

67/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (72nd pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 95%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 102 (89 News · 13 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
74 news sentiment+1.6
Analyst downgrades-0.2
11 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
4 earnings beat+0.0
12 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

29/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-30.1%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-17.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-3.8%
Price vs 21 EMA65 · +2.4%
Price vs 50 EMA43 · -1.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA22 · -3.8%
3M RS vs SPY6 · -17.1%
6M RS vs SPY3 · -30.1%
Distance from 52W High36 · -31.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 78%
Thesis
Constellation Energy Corporation is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value more than 100% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and a negative spread between ROIC and WACC. Despite a healthy free cash flow yield of 9.1%, returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital, indicating poor value creation.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the continued deterioration of the company's return on invested capital relative to its cost of capital, which could further depress valuation and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -11.95%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 503.16%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$7,973$7,186$101-$2,879-$664-$9$2,331$4,718$6,103$5,558$7,520$8,040$4,838$6,639$7,156

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Constellation Energy Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Constellation Energy CorporationUtilities

Constellation Energy Corporation operates as a U.S.-based firm dedicated to producing and distributing electricity. Its activities are organized across five primary geographical segments: the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and various other power markets. In addition to electrical power, the company supplies natural gas, sustainable energy solutions, and an array of associated energy products and services. Possessing a significant generation capability of 32,400 megawatts, its power portfolio incorporates diverse sources such as nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, and hydroelectric facilities. The company serves a wide spectrum of clients, including utility distributors, local government bodies, cooperatives, along with commercial, industrial, public sector, and household consumers. Founded in 2021, its corporate headquarters are situated in Baltimore, Maryland. Constellation Energy Corporation previously operated as a subsidiary of Exelon Corporation.