Market Pulse53Neutral

Celsius Holdings, Inc.Opportunity Rank #265(CELH) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$27.17

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$27.17
Price
$20.45
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 25%MOS: $16.36

Fundamental Score

40/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

51/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

13/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) is estimated at $20.45 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $27.17, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.68% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.14%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) is estimated at $20.45 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $27.17, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.68% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.14%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$20.45
-24.73% downside
20% margin of safety: $16.36
Years: 10Growth Rate: 8.68%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.01%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

40/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
24.7% premium to price
9
FCF Yield
5.3% trailing FCF yield
82
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.0% vs WACC 9.0% (0.2x)
11
Net Debt / FCF
5.1x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
147.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: FCF Yield, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

51/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (6th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 71 (60 News · 11 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
53 news sentiment+0.3
2 margin pressure-0.2
Earnings beat+0.1
Regulatory scrutiny-0.1
Upgrade headlines-0.0
2 legal risk-0.0

Trend Details

13/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-58.2%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-58.2%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-24.4%
Price vs 21 EMA12 · -7.6%
Price vs 50 EMA8 · -11.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA20 · -4.0%
3M RS vs SPY2 · -24.4%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -58.2%
Distance from 52W High0 · -58.2%

Investment Coach

Updating... 44d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 78%
Thesis
Celsius Holdings, Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 21.5% with weak fundamentals indicated by a low score of 40 and returns trailing its cost of capital, despite an improving narrative score of 65. The company's free cash flow growth is strong, but its ROIC significantly underperforms its WACC, suggesting operational inefficiencies.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's returns on invested capital remain below its weighted average cost of capital, which could continue to pressure valuation and shareholder returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 8.67%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 241.03%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201020092008200720062005
$367$396$286$159$116-$93$4$1-$12-$8-$2-$1-$3-$2-$3-$14-$10-$5-$2-$10$

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Celsius Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Celsius Holdings, Inc.Consumer Defensive

Celsius Holdings, Inc. is a global enterprise specializing in the development, production, promotion, and distribution of functional beverages and liquid nutritional supplements. Its extensive reach covers North America, Europe, Asia, and other international markets. The company's diverse product lineup includes CELSIUS Originals, offering both sparkling and still functional energy drinks. For a dietary supplement with an energy boost, they provide CELSIUS HEAT, available in carbonated varieties like apple jack'd, orangesicle, and inferno punch, as well as cherry lime, blueberry pomegranate, strawberry dragon fruit, tangerine grapefruit, and jackfruit. Muscle recovery is addressed with CELSIUS BCCA+ENERGY, a functional energy drink rich in branched-chain amino acids. Consumers seeking on-the-go options can find CELSIUS On-the-Go, which packages the active ingredients of their energy drinks as a powder in individual packets and canisters. Additionally, their CELSIUS Sweetened line features non-carbonated functional energy drinks in flavors such as sparkling grapefruit, cucumber lime, orange pomegranate, pineapple coconut, watermelon berry, and strawberries and cream. Celsius Holdings ensures its products reach a broad audience through a multifaceted distribution strategy, encompassing direct-to-store delivery partnerships, direct sales to various retailers including supermarkets, convenience stores, pharmacies, nutritional stores, and mass merchants, as well as sales to health clubs, spas, gyms, the military, and e-commerce channels. Founded in 2004 as Vector Ventures, Inc. before adopting its current name in January 2007, the company's headquarters are located in Boca Raton, Florida.