Market Pulse53Neutral

Coherent, Inc.Opportunity Rank #296(COHR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$313.22

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$313.22
Price
$65.92
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 79%MOS: $52.74

Fundamental Score

34/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

68/100
Improving

+5 vs previous

Trend Score

23/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of Coherent, Inc. (COHR) is estimated at $65.92 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $313.22, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.95% long-term growth rate and a 12.06% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Coherent, Inc. (COHR) is estimated at $65.92 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $313.22, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.95% long-term growth rate and a 12.06% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$65.92
-78.95% downside
20% margin of safety: $52.74
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.95%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.53%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

34/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
79.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.6% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.5% vs WACC 8.0% (0.2x)
10
Net Debt / FCF
0.9x net debt to FCF
81
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
13.5% 5Y FCF CAGR
93
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

68/100
Improving
+5 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (46th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 69 (64 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
56 news sentiment+1.1
5 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
3 upgrade headlines+0.1
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

23/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+32.1%
Price vs 50 EMA-16.1%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-20.7%
Price vs 21 EMA4 · -12.2%
Price vs 50 EMA3 · -16.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA18 · -4.4%
3M RS vs SPY3 · -20.7%
6M RS vs SPY97 · +32.1%
Distance from 52W High32 · -33.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 45d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Coherent, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 80.7% above the estimated fair value, supported by a bearish fundamental score and returns trailing its cost of capital. Despite a stable narrative score, the weak fundamentals and negative ROIC spread suggest caution.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's continued inability to generate returns above its cost of capital, which could further depress valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.95%5 Year CAGR: 2.59%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$819$1,074$893$1,070$728$721$434$316$314$257$181$182$125$133$131$114$86$64$64$65$56

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Coherent, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Coherent, Inc.Technology

Coherent, Inc. specializes in advanced laser technologies, offering a comprehensive suite of products that includes lasers, laser-based solutions, and complete systems. These are deployed across a spectrum of uses, from commercial and industrial operations to critical scientific research. The company's operations are distinctly segmented into two primary areas: laser sources for Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and industrial lasers alongside integrated systems. Coherent handles the entire lifecycle of its offerings, from conceptual design and manufacturing to global marketing and ongoing service. Their product portfolio spans lasers, specialized laser tools, high-precision optical components, associated accessories, and sophisticated laser measurement and control devices. These sophisticated tools are integral to fields such as microelectronics fabrication, advanced materials processing, integration into original equipment manufacturer (OEM) components and instrumentation, scientific studies, and various governmental programs. Distribution in the U.S. is primarily managed by an in-house sales team, while international markets are reached through a combination of direct sales personnel and independent representatives. Established in 1966, Coherent, Inc. maintains its headquarters in Santa Clara, California. Notably, since July 1, 2022, the company has operated as a wholly-owned subsidiary of II-VI Incorporated.