COP

$104.98

Public overview and default valuation.

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Valuation Details
Default assumptions: 10Y forecast, 9% market return, 2.5% terminal growth, -2.58% trendline growth.
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$396.09

With 20% Margin of Safety (MoS):

$316.87
201.84% upside
Capital Efficiency
Average Quarterly ROIC
2.65%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.
Fundamental Score
75
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
201.8% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
17.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.7% vs WACC 9.0% (0.3x)
15
Net Debt / FCF
0.7x net debt to FCF
86
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
19.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.
Narrative Score
51
Weak
Weighted across 6 recent drivers · Last 30 days+1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline: Low (18th pct)
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 100%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 148 (News 133 · Analyst 15)
Drivers
2 earnings miss-1.1
94 news sentiment+0.7
31 regulatory scrutiny+0.6
3 analyst downgrades-0.1
2 earnings beat-0.1
Restructuring+0.1
Other Metrics
P/E14.8
Profit Margin14.8%
Owner Earnings$22.58b
One Dollar Premise50.00%
Debt/Equity0.89
Current Ratio1.29
PEG-2.832
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
$37,112$36,341$41,757$23,340$26,806$32,912$28,094$31,624$33,654$17,622$9,272$11,668$19,684$17,740$9,517$22,320$38,473$31,213$32,242$22,819
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates ConocoPhillips's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

ConocoPhillipsEnergy

ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids worldwide. It primarily engages in the conventional and tight oil reservoirs, shale gas, heavy oil, LNG, oil sands, and other production operations. The company's portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; various LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of conventional and unconventional exploration prospects. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Last updated: Feb 06, 2026
Data sources: Financial Modeling Prep
This valuation is based on assumptions and publicly available data. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.