Market Pulse44Neutral

ConocoPhillipsOpportunity Rank #119(COP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Energy

Current Price

$109.70

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$109.70
Price
$177.67
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 62%MOS: $142.14

Fundamental Score

75/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

60/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

31/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of ConocoPhillips (COP) is estimated at $177.67 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $109.70, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -2.61% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.31%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of ConocoPhillips (COP) is estimated at $177.67 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $109.70, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -2.61% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.31%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$177.67
▲ 61.96% upside
20% margin of safety: $142.14
Years: 10Growth Rate: -2.61%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.45%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

75/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
62.0% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
15.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.5% vs WACC 9.0% (0.3x)
14
Net Debt / FCF
0.8x net debt to FCF
84
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
16.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

60/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (18th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 97%Updated: 8m ago
Sources: 110 (100 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
76 news sentiment+1.0
Analyst upgrades+0.3
20 regulatory scrutiny-0.2
Downgrade headlines+0.0
3 earnings beat+0.0
9 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

31/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-28.3%
Price vs 50 EMA-6.5%
Price vs 21 EMA-4.8%
Price vs 21 EMA23 · -4.8%
Price vs 50 EMA21 · -6.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA35 · -1.8%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -28.3%
6M RS vs SPY63 · +4.7%
Distance from 52W High64 · -18.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
ConocoPhillips is undervalued with an estimated fair value 21.5% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a healthy free cash flow yield of 12.1%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's constructive fundamentals and buyback activity present a compelling buy opportunity.
Key Risk
The deteriorating narrative trend and negative spread between ROIC and WACC pose risks to sustained value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -2.61%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.83%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$20,569$22,819$32,242$31,213$38,473$22,320$9,517$17,740$19,684$11,668$9,272$17,622$33,654$31,624$28,094$32,912$26,806$23,340$41,757$36,341$37,112

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates ConocoPhillips's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

ConocoPhillipsEnergy

ConocoPhillips is an energy company that engages in the global exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of various resources, including crude petroleum, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (NGLs). Its primary operations are centered on both conventional and tight oil formations, shale gas, heavy crude, LNG developments, and oil sands projects. The company's extensive portfolio includes unconventional resources located in North America; established conventional assets spanning North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; numerous LNG ventures; oil sands properties within Canada; and a significant inventory of potential conventional and unconventional exploration opportunities. ConocoPhillips was established in 1917 and its corporate headquarters are situated in Houston, Texas.