Market Pulse59Neutral

ConocoPhillipsOpportunity Rank #32(COP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Energy

Current Price

$114.88

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$114.88
Price
$147.52
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 28%MOS: $118.02

Fundamental Score

72/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

49/100
Neutral

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of ConocoPhillips (COP) is estimated at $147.52 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $114.88, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -2.85% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.33%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of ConocoPhillips (COP) is estimated at $147.52 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $114.88, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -2.85% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.33%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$147.52
▲ 28.41% upside
20% margin of safety: $118.02
Years: 10Growth Rate: -2.85%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.06%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

72/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
28.4% discount to price
97
FCF Yield
12.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.1% vs WACC 9.0% (0.2x)
11
Net Debt / FCF
1.0x net debt to FCF
81
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
13.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
91
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (94th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 147 (133 News · 14 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
100 news sentiment+2.6
4 earnings beat+0.4
29 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
2 analyst downgrades-0.0
12 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

49/100
NeutralAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+21.0%
Price vs 21 EMA-6.4%
Price vs 50 EMA-5.1%
Price vs 21 EMA16 · -6.4%
Price vs 50 EMA26 · -5.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA61 · +1.3%
3M RS vs SPY46 · -1.0%
6M RS vs SPY91 · +21.0%
Distance from 52W High70 · -14.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 69%
Thesis
ConocoPhillips is undervalued with an estimated fair value 26.9% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a robust narrative score. The company exhibits strong free cash flow yield and buyback activity, indicating potential for shareholder value growth.
Key Risk
Returns are currently trailing the estimated cost of capital, which may pressure future valuation and profitability.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -2.85%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -2.47%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$17,621$22,819$32,242$31,213$38,473$22,320$9,517$17,740$19,684$11,668$9,272$17,622$33,654$31,624$28,094$32,912$26,806$23,340$41,757$36,341$37,112

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates ConocoPhillips's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

ConocoPhillipsEnergy

ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids worldwide. It primarily engages in the conventional and tight oil reservoirs, shale gas, heavy oil, LNG, oil sands, and other production operations. The company's portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; various LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of conventional and unconventional exploration prospects. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.