Market Pulse44Neutral

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd.Opportunity Rank #106(CP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$85.67

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$85.67
Price
$106.17
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 24%MOS: $84.94

Fundamental Score

62/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

51/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

51/100
Neutral

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP) is estimated at $106.17 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $85.67, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.26% long-term growth rate and an 8.62% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP) is estimated at $106.17 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $85.67, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.26% long-term growth rate and an 8.62% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$106.17
▲ 23.93% upside
20% margin of safety: $84.94
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.26%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.02%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

62/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
23.9% discount to price
90
FCF Yield
7.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.0% vs WACC 9.0% (0.2x)
11
Net Debt / FCF
2.9x net debt to FCF
2
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
12.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
90
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

51/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (13th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 22m ago
Sources: 41 (35 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
32 news sentiment+0.1
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

51/100
NeutralAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-6.1%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-5.3%
Price vs 21 EMA-2.6%
Price vs 21 EMA34 · -2.6%
Price vs 50 EMA46 · -0.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA65 · +1.8%
3M RS vs SPY29 · -5.3%
6M RS vs SPY65 · +5.7%
Distance from 52W High88 · -6.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
WATCHConfidence: 46%
Thesis
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. shows a constructive fundamental profile with a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.4% and a valuation implying a 19.4% upside. However, returns are currently trailing the estimated cost of capital, indicating potential challenges in value creation.
Key Risk
The key risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may limit long-term value generation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.26%5 Year CAGR: 9.49%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$5,801$5,966$5,742$4,686$4,024$3,686$3,159$3,274$3,010$2,487$2,310$2,811$2,522$2,250$1,748$1,141$867$844$1,392$1,559$1,303

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd.Industrials

Specializing in railway freight transportation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. operates an extensive rail network connecting Canada, the United States, and Mexico. The company, headquartered in Calgary, Canada, began its operations on June 22, 2001.