Market Pulse44Neutral

Capital Senior Living Corporation(CSU) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$33.54

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$33.54
Price
-$51.21
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 253%MOS: -$40.97

Fundamental Score

18/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

55/100
Improving

+3 vs previous

Trend Score

0/100
Unavailable

Trend data unavailable

The intrinsic value of Capital Senior Living Corporation (CSU) is estimated at $-51.21 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $33.54, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.16% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 4.33%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Capital Senior Living Corporation (CSU) is estimated at $-51.21 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $33.54, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.16% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 4.33%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$51.21
-252.68% downside
20% margin of safety: -$40.97
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.16%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-0.29%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

18/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
252.7% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
7.3% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -0.3% vs WACC 11.0% (0.0x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
94.0x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-21.5% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

55/100
Improving
+3 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (96th pct)Weighted across 2 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 48%Updated: 17m ago
Sources: 11 (11 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
10 news sentiment+0.4
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0

Trend Details

0/100
NeutralRules-based daily model
Trend score unavailable for this ticker right now.

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
Capital Senior Living Corporation is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 252% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. The company faces elevated leverage and declining free cash flow growth, indicating financial stress.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's inability to improve its return on invested capital relative to its weighted average cost of capital, which could further deteriorate its valuation and financial health.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in narrative trend and score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.15%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -15.05%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042003
$16$58$23$9$26$59$96$115$91$65$56$59$25$26$28$23$21$2$5$7$4

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Capital Senior Living Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Capital Senior Living CorporationHealthcare

Capital Senior Living Corporation (CSU) is a company that focuses on the senior housing sector within the United States. Its operations involve developing, owning, managing, and running various types of residential communities for older adults. For residents seeking an active and self-sufficient lifestyle, CSU offers independent living options that include regular meal service, transportation, and a robust calendar of social and recreational events. These communities also provide essential domestic services like laundry and housekeeping, around-the-clock staffing, and access to wellness programs such as health screenings, nutritional guidance, and fitness classes. For individuals who require more personal assistance, the company's assisted living services offer comprehensive support with daily activities. This includes help with mobility, bathing, dressing, eating, personal hygiene, and medication management. These facilities also provide general support services such as meals, engaging activities, cleaning, maintenance, and transport. Furthermore, supplementary services can be arranged for specific needs, and specialized care is provided for residents living with various forms of dementia. Beyond these offerings, CSU also operates dedicated memory care facilities and facilitates home care services for residents through partnerships with external providers. As of the close of 2019, the company's portfolio included 126 senior living communities situated in 23 states, capable of housing approximately 16,000 residents. Of these properties, 80 were company-owned, and 46 were leased. Capital Senior Living Corporation was established in 1990 and maintains its corporate headquarters in Dallas, Texas.