Market Pulse50Neutral

CSX CorporationOpportunity Rank #236(CSX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$38.94

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$38.94
Price
$34.41
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 12%MOS: $27.53

Fundamental Score

33/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

58/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of CSX Corporation (CSX) is estimated at $34.41 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $38.94, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.38% long-term growth rate and an 8.72% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of CSX Corporation (CSX) is estimated at $34.41 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $38.94, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.38% long-term growth rate and an 8.72% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$34.41
-11.63% downside
20% margin of safety: $27.53
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.38%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.85%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

33/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
11.6% premium to price
31
FCF Yield
7.3% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.9% vs WACC 10.0% (0.3x)
14
Net Debt / FCF
3.4x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-1.1% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

58/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (63rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 76%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 31 (25 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
19 news sentiment+0.8
Analyst downgrades-0.2
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
Demand slowdown+0.0
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 22h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 71%
Thesis
CSX Corporation's shares appear fully priced with a fair value below the current market price, and its fundamentals are weak as returns trail the estimated cost of capital despite a healthy free cash flow yield. The company shows a bearish fundamental score and negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating challenges in generating value above its cost of capital.
Key Risk
The key risk is that CSX's returns may not improve sufficiently to justify its current valuation, leading to potential share price declines.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend or fundamental score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.38%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -2.78%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$5,290$7,515$7,776$7,771$7,752$6,890$5,889$6,507$6,386$5,512$5,439$5,932$5,792$5,580$5,287$5,788$5,071$3,507$4,654$3,957$3,697

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates CSX Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

CSX CorporationIndustrials

CSX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides rail-based freight transportation services. The company offers rail services; and transportation of intermodal containers and trailers, as well as other transportation services, such as rail-to-truck transfers and bulk commodity operations. It transports chemicals, agricultural and food products, automotive, minerals, forest products, fertilizers, and metals and equipment; and coal, coke, and iron ore to electricity-generating power plants, steel manufacturers, and industrial plants, as well as exports coal to deep-water port facilities. The company also offers intermodal transportation services through a network of approximately 30 terminals transporting manufactured consumer goods in containers; and drayage services, including the pickup and delivery of intermodal shipments. It serves the automotive industry with distribution centers and storage locations, as well as connects non-rail served customers through transferring products, such as plastics and ethanol from rail to trucks. The company operates approximately 19,500 route mile rail network, which serves various population centers in 23 states east of the Mississippi River, the District of Columbia, and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec, as well as owns and leases approximately 3,500 locomotives. It also serves production and distribution facilities through track connections. CSX Corporation was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.