Market Pulse44Neutral

CSX CorporationOpportunity Rank #242(CSX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$46.20

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$46.20
Price
$33.02
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 29%MOS: $26.42

Fundamental Score

27/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

60/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

70/100
Strong

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of CSX Corporation (CSX) is estimated at $33.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $46.20, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.36% long-term growth rate and an 8.76% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of CSX Corporation (CSX) is estimated at $33.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $46.20, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.36% long-term growth rate and an 8.76% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$33.02
-28.53% downside
20% margin of safety: $26.42
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.36%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.96%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

27/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
28.5% premium to price
2
FCF Yield
6.0% trailing FCF yield
99
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.0% vs WACC 10.0% (0.3x)
15
Net Debt / FCF
3.5x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-1.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

60/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (77th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 46m ago
Sources: 42 (25 News · 17 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
18 news sentiment+0.7
3 upgrade headlines+0.3
4 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
2 analyst downgrades-0.0
15 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

70/100
StrongAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-2.9%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+15.7%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+6.3%
Price vs 21 EMA49 · -0.2%
Price vs 50 EMA62 · +2.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA70 · +2.6%
3M RS vs SPY74 · +6.3%
6M RS vs SPY85 · +15.7%
Distance from 52W High94 · -2.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 78%
Thesis
CSX Corporation is currently overvalued by approximately 28% with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital, despite a healthy free cash flow yield of 5.9%. The company shows a bearish fundamental score and a stable but weak narrative trend, suggesting limited near-term upside.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that CSX's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating ongoing value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.36%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -3.11%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$5,131$7,515$7,776$7,771$7,752$6,890$5,889$6,507$6,386$5,512$5,439$5,932$5,792$5,580$5,287$5,788$5,071$3,507$4,654$3,957$3,697

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates CSX Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

CSX CorporationIndustrials

CSX Corporation, operating through its subsidiaries, stands as a leading provider of rail-based cargo transportation services. The company offers a wide range of services, including general rail freight, the movement of intermodal containers and trailers, and specialized transport solutions such as efficient rail-to-truck transfers and the handling of bulk commodities. CSX facilitates the shipment of a diverse array of goods, encompassing industrial chemicals, agricultural and food products, automotive components and finished vehicles, minerals, timber products, fertilizers, and various metals and heavy equipment. Additionally, it plays a crucial role in energy supply chains, transporting coal, coke, and iron ore to power generation facilities, steel manufacturers, and industrial plants, and also manages the export of coal via deep-water port access. The company's intermodal operations leverage a robust network of approximately 30 terminals to transport manufactured consumer goods in containers. This also includes drayage services, managing the initial pickup and final delivery of intermodal freight. For the automotive industry, CSX provides dedicated distribution centers and storage locations, and extends its reach to clients without direct rail access by orchestrating transfers of products like plastics and ethanol from rail to road. CSX's substantial infrastructure features an extensive rail network spanning approximately 19,500 route miles. This network strategically connects numerous population centers across 23 states east of the Mississippi River, the District of Columbia, and extends into the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec. Powering these operations, CSX owns and leases around 3,500 locomotives. Its rail lines also provide direct connections to various production and distribution facilities, enhancing supply chain efficiency. Established in 1978, CSX Corporation has its headquarters located in Jacksonville, Florida.