Market Pulse44Neutral

CVS Health Corporation(CVS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$101.30

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$101.30
Price
$147.47
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 46%MOS: $117.98

Fundamental Score

40/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

72/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

0/100
Unavailable

Trend data unavailable

The intrinsic value of CVS Health Corporation (CVS) is estimated at $147.47 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $101.30, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.00% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 6.86%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of CVS Health Corporation (CVS) is estimated at $147.47 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $101.30, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.00% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 6.86%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$147.47
45.58% upside
20% margin of safety: $117.98
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.00%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.36%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

40/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
45.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
10.3% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.4% vs WACC 10.0% (0.1x)
7
Net Debt / FCF
3.9x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-3.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

72/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (33rd pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 97%Updated: 49m ago
Sources: 124 (106 News · 18 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
94 news sentiment+1.9
8 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Upgrade headlines+0.1
3 earnings beat+0.0
18 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

0/100
NeutralRules-based daily model
Trend score unavailable for this ticker right now.

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
WATCHConfidence: 42%
Thesis
CVS Health Corporation is currently trading at a significant discount with an estimated fair value 57% above its current price, supported by a strong narrative score. However, the company's fundamentals are weak, with returns trailing its cost of capital and declining free cash flow growth.
Key Risk
The key risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating the company is not generating sufficient returns to cover its cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.00%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -4.86%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$13,270$13,471$11,888$16,457$18,904$20,785$18,302$15,305$10,902$9,925$12,365$10,906$10,273$7,767$8,701$7,728$6,784$6,583$6,127$5,035$3,511

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates CVS Health Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

CVS Health CorporationHealthcare

CVS Health Corporation is a prominent healthcare services provider operating across the United States. The company's Health Care Benefits division delivers a range of health insurance offerings, including traditional plans, voluntary coverage, and consumer-directed options, alongside associated services. Its diverse clientele spans employer organizations, private individuals, university students, part-time and hourly staff, various health plans, healthcare providers, government bodies, state-sponsored programs, labor unions, and individuals living abroad. Through its Pharmacy Services segment, CVS Health manages pharmacy benefits, offering comprehensive solutions such as designing and administering plans, managing drug formularies, overseeing retail pharmacy networks, and providing mail-order, specialty pharmacy, and infusion services. This segment also delivers clinical support and helps manage disease and medical expenditures. It serves a broad array of clients, including employers, insurance carriers, trade unions, government employee groups, health plans, prescription drug programs, Medicaid managed care organizations, and plans available on both public and private health insurance marketplaces, in addition to other health benefit plan sponsors and individual consumers. Operationally, this segment encompasses specialty retail pharmacies, specialty mail-order services, general mail-order dispensing pharmacies, compounding pharmacies, and facilities dedicated to infusion and enteral nutrition support. The Retail/LTC (Long-Term Care) segment is responsible for selling both prescription and over-the-counter medications, consumer health and beauty items, and personal care products. It also delivers healthcare services via its MinuteClinic walk-in medical clinics. Furthermore, this segment handles the distribution of prescription drugs and offers pharmacy consulting along with other supplementary services to long-term care facilities and various other care environments. As of December 31, 2021, CVS Health boasted approximately 9,900 retail outlets and 1,200 MinuteClinic locations. This network is complemented by online retail pharmacy platforms, LTC pharmacies, and on-site pharmacies. Originally established in 1963 and headquartered in Woonsocket, Rhode Island, the company was known as CVS Caremark Corporation before officially rebranding to CVS Health Corporation in September 2014.