Market Pulse59Neutral

Datadog, Inc.Opportunity Rank #168(DDOG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$188.73

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$188.73
Price
$75.52
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 60%MOS: $60.42

Fundamental Score

45/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

97/100
Strong

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Datadog, Inc. (DDOG) is estimated at $75.52 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $188.73, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.17% long-term growth rate and a 9.77% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Datadog, Inc. (DDOG) is estimated at $75.52 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $188.73, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.17% long-term growth rate and a 9.77% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$75.52
▼ -59.99% downside
20% margin of safety: $60.42
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.17%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.46%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

45/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
60.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.7% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.5% vs WACC 8.0% (0.6x)
28
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
53.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (86th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 119 (96 News · 23 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
68 news sentiment+6.4
22 regulatory scrutiny+2.7
Margin pressure+0.2
4 upgrade headlines+0.1
Earnings beat+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Trend Details

97/100
StrongAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+72.4%
Distance from 52-Week High0.0%
Price vs 21 EMA+40.3%
Price vs 21 EMA100 · +40.3%
Price vs 50 EMA100 · +51.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA92 · +7.6%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +72.4%
6M RS vs SPY91 · +20.3%
Distance from 52W High100 · 0.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 64%
Thesis
Datadog, Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 58% with returns trailing its estimated cost of capital despite a strong and improving narrative score. The company shows a thin free cash flow yield and a negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating fundamental challenges.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's returns may not improve sufficiently to justify its current high valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 21.16%5 Year CAGR: 28.88%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
$1,147$1,100$905$688$483$323$135$48$27$22

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Datadog, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Datadog, Inc.Technology

Datadog, Inc. provides monitoring and analytics platform for developers, information technology operations teams, and business users in the cloud in North America and internationally. The company's SaaS platform integrates and automates infrastructure monitoring, application performance monitoring, log management, and security monitoring to provide real-time observability of its customers technology stack. Its platform also provides user experience monitoring, network performance monitoring, cloud security, developer-focused observability, and incident management, as well as a range of shared features, such as dashboards, analytics, collaboration tools, and alerting capabilities. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in New York, New York.