Market Pulse44Neutral

Deere & CompanyOpportunity Rank #152(DE) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$598.59

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$598.59
Price
$661.27
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 10%MOS: $529.02

Fundamental Score

44/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

59/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

61/100
Constructive

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Deere & Company (DE) is estimated at $661.27 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $598.59, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.96% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.60%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Deere & Company (DE) is estimated at $661.27 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $598.59, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.96% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.60%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$661.27
10.47% upside
20% margin of safety: $529.02
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.96%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.16%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

44/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
10.5% discount to price
67
FCF Yield
7.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.2% vs WACC 11.0% (0.2x)
10
Net Debt / FCF
4.5x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
3.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

59/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (28th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 15m ago
Sources: 67 (59 News · 8 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
44 news sentiment+0.8
9 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Earnings miss-0.0
Legal risk+0.0
4 earnings beat-0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Trend Details

61/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+13.6%
Distance from 52-Week High-9.6%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-7.8%
Price vs 21 EMA73 · +4.0%
Price vs 50 EMA71 · +4.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA54 · +0.5%
3M RS vs SPY21 · -7.8%
6M RS vs SPY82 · +13.6%
Distance from 52W High81 · -9.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
WATCHConfidence: 48%
Thesis
Deere & Company is currently undervalued with an estimated fair value 22.4% above its current price and a healthy free cash flow yield of 8.0%. However, returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital, indicating operational challenges despite strong buybacks and cash flow growth.
Key Risk
The company's return on invested capital significantly lags its weighted average cost of capital, posing a risk to sustained value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.96%5 Year CAGR: 3.26%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$12,098$11,687$14,033$13,057$8,487$10,306$10,139$6,861$4,770$4,792$6,719$6,566$6,185$5,630$3,289$4,007$3,595$3,293$3,557$4,244$1,739

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Deere & Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Deere & CompanyIndustrials

Deere & Company is a global manufacturer and distributor of a wide range of equipment. The company's operations are organized into four primary business segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services. The Production and Precision Agriculture segment focuses on large-scale farming and advanced agricultural practices, offering medium-sized tractors, various harvesting machinery (including combines, cotton pickers, and sugarcane harvesters), front-end harvesting tools, sugarcane loaders, pull-behind scrapers, and essential tillage and seeding implements. It also supplies specialized application equipment like sprayers and nutrient management systems, along with soil preparation machinery, primarily serving grain growers. The Small Agriculture and Turf segment caters to smaller farming needs and land maintenance. Its product line includes utility tractors along with their complementary loaders and attachments. This segment also provides an extensive selection of turf and utility equipment, suchg as riding and commercial lawnmowers, specialized golf course maintenance machinery, and utility vehicles. Additionally, it offers various implements for tasks like mowing, tilling, snow removal, aerating, and general turf care across residential, commercial, golf, and sports environments, alongside other outdoor power products and hay and forage equipment. This division also resells products from other manufacturers. Its customer base includes dairy and livestock farmers, other crop producers, and general turf and utility clients. The Construction and Forestry segment delivers a comprehensive suite of heavy machinery for construction and logging. This includes earthmoving and roadbuilding equipment such as backhoe loaders, crawler dozers and loaders, four-wheel-drive loaders, excavators, motor graders, articulated dump trucks, landscape and skid-steer loaders, milling machines, pavers, compactors, rollers, crushers, screens, and asphalt plants. For forestry operations, it supplies log skidders, feller bunchers, log loaders and forwarders, and log harvesters, in addition to various attachments for all its machinery. Lastly, the Financial Services segment provides funding solutions to facilitate the sale and leasing of agriculture and turf, as well as construction and forestry equipment. It extends wholesale financing to dealers stocking these product lines, offers extended equipment warranties, and manages retail revolving charge accounts for end-users. Established in 1837, Deere & Company has its corporate headquarters situated in Moline, Illinois.