Market Pulse50Neutral

Dine Brands Global, Inc.Opportunity Rank #212(DIN) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$27.26

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$27.26
Price
$28.19
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 3%MOS: $22.55

Fundamental Score

42/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Dine Brands Global, Inc. (DIN) is estimated at $28.19 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $27.26, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.48% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 5.90%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Dine Brands Global, Inc. (DIN) is estimated at $28.19 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $27.26, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.48% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 5.90%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$28.19
3.41% upside
20% margin of safety: $22.55
Years: 10Growth Rate: 0.48%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.84%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

42/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
3.4% discount to price
56
FCF Yield
32.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.8% vs WACC 7.0% (0.3x)
13
Net Debt / FCF
8.4x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
3.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (53rd pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 70%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 25 (20 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
19 news sentiment+0.2
Earnings beat+0.0
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 13h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 69%
Thesis
Dine Brands Global, Inc. exhibits weak fundamentals with a bearish score of 44 and returns trailing its estimated cost of capital, despite a healthy free cash flow yield of 32.1%. The company's elevated leverage at 8.4x net debt to free cash flow further undermines its financial stability, leading to a medium confidence avoid recommendation.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's sustained inability to generate returns above its weighted average cost of capital, which may impair value creation and investor returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 0.48%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -5.72%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$126$125$122$168$125$213$107$175$155$79$124$142$124$135$70$148$198$173$143$118$74

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Dine Brands Global, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Dine Brands Global, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Dine Brands Global, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns, franchises, operates, and rents full-service restaurants in the United States and internationally. It operates through five segments: Applebee's Franchise Operations, International House of Pancakes (IHOP) Franchise Operations, Rental Operations, Financing Operations, and Company-Operated Restaurant Operations. The company owns and franchises two restaurant concepts, including Applebee's Neighborhood Grill + Bar in the bar and grill segment of the casual dining category; and IHOP in the family dining category of the restaurant industry. Its Applebee's restaurants offer American fare with drinks and drafts; and IHOP restaurants provide full table services, and food and beverage offerings. As of December 31, 2021, the company had 1,611 Applebee's franchised restaurants, and 1,751 IHOP franchised and area licensed restaurants. It is also involved in the lease or sublease of 598 IHOP franchised restaurants and two Applebee's franchised restaurants; and the financing of franchise fees and equipment leases. the company was formerly known as DineEquity, Inc. and changed its name to Dine Brands Global, Inc. in February 2018. Dine Brands Global, Inc. was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Glendale, California.