Market Pulse45Neutral

Leonardo DRS, Inc.Opportunity Rank #244(DRS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$44.99

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$44.99
Price
$32.88
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 27%MOS: $26.30

Fundamental Score

51/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

53/100
Neutral

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Leonardo DRS, Inc. (DRS) is estimated at $32.88 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $44.99, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.54% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.70%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Leonardo DRS, Inc. (DRS) is estimated at $32.88 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $44.99, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.54% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.70%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$32.88
-26.92% downside
20% margin of safety: $26.30
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.54%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.92%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

51/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
26.9% premium to price
5
FCF Yield
4.8% trailing FCF yield
70
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.9% vs WACC 8.0% (0.4x)
18
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
26.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (1st pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 55%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 10 (9 News · 1 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
6 news sentiment+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

53/100
NeutralAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+27.3%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-12.1%
Distance from 52-Week High-9.5%
Price vs 21 EMA36 · -2.3%
Price vs 50 EMA50 · +0.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA69 · +2.4%
3M RS vs SPY12 · -12.1%
6M RS vs SPY95 · +27.3%
Distance from 52W High81 · -9.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 66%
Thesis
Leonardo DRS, Inc. is currently overvalued with its estimated fair value 34.3% below the current price, and its returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital. Despite a net cash balance sheet, the company's fundamentals remain bearish with a negative spread between ROIC and WACC.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's returns may not improve sufficiently to justify the current valuation, leading to further price declines.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC vs WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.54%5 Year CAGR: 19.29%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018200820072006
$575$505$356$265$98$238$181$212$145$283$251$200

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Leonardo DRS, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Leonardo DRS, Inc.Industrials

Established in Arlington, Virginia, in 1969, Leonardo DRS, Inc. is a leading supplier of advanced defense products and technologies. The company's diverse portfolio addresses military requirements across various environments, including land, air, sea, space, and cybersecurity, with additional applications in the commercial sector. Its operations are organized into two primary divisions: Advanced Sensing and Computing, and Integrated Mission Systems. DRS provides sophisticated sensing solutions, such as infrared systems for threat identification and improving situational awareness, alongside uncooled infrared technologies and systems designed to mitigate brownout conditions. Their electronic warfare (EW) capabilities encompass airborne, vehicle-mounted, and soldier-borne systems, supported by specialized EW software, training tools, and intelligence services. Furthermore, Leonardo DRS develops essential computing systems for military platforms like ground vehicles, ships, and submarines. These offerings include robust network and data distribution applications, integrated sensor systems, and resilient networked computing infrastructure. The company also specializes in force protection, delivering solutions for counter-unmanned aerial systems (C-UAS), short-range air defense, and active protection systems. Additionally, DRS is a key provider of power management and propulsion technologies, offering systems for power control, distribution, conversion, and propulsion—including hybrid electric drive systems, energy storage solutions, gas turbine packages, nuclear instrumentation and controls, and thermal management and refrigeration equipment. Leonardo DRS serves a broad client base, which includes the U.S. military, major aerospace and defense contractors, government intelligence agencies, and international armed forces.