Market Pulse44Neutral

Duolingo, Inc.Opportunity Rank #5(DUOL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$127.25

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$127.25
Price
$315.88
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 148%MOS: $252.70

Fundamental Score

98/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

+1 vs previous

Trend Score

70/100
Strong

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) is estimated at $315.88 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $127.25, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 15.87% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.64%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) is estimated at $315.88 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $127.25, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 15.87% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.64%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$315.88
▲ 148.24% upside
20% margin of safety: $252.70
Years: 10Growth Rate: 15.87%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
68.33%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

98/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
148.2% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
7.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 68.3% vs WACC 8.0% (8.5x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
84.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
+1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (68th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 89%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 65 (57 News · 8 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
8 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
43 news sentiment+0.1
3 earnings beat+0.0
Margin pressure+0.0
2 legal risk+0.0
8 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

70/100
StrongAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-73.0%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-41.7%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+15.0%
Price vs 21 EMA86 · +7.6%
Price vs 50 EMA90 · +11.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA79 · +4.0%
3M RS vs SPY92 · +15.0%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -41.7%
Distance from 52W High0 · -73.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Duolingo, Inc. is significantly undervalued with a fair value estimate 145.8% above its current price, supported by a strong fundamental score of 98 and a robust ROIC that exceeds its cost of capital by 50.5 points. The company also demonstrates healthy free cash flow yield and consistent buybacks, indicating strong financial health and growth potential.
Key Risk
The primary risk is if Duolingo's ROIC falls below its cost of capital or if the valuation discount fails to narrow, undermining the investment thesis.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 40.30%5 Year CAGR: 103.93%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$450$406$298$157$59$13$21$6

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Duolingo, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Duolingo, Inc.Technology

Duolingo, Inc. builds and operates an online platform and a mobile application dedicated to language learning, catering to audiences in both the United States and China. The company's comprehensive curriculum spans 40 diverse languages, featuring prominent options such as Spanish, English, French, Japanese, German, Italian, Chinese, and Portuguese, among others. Furthermore, it offers a digital examination for assessing language proficiency. This enterprise was founded in 2011 and its main offices are located in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.