Market Pulse55Neutral

Devon Energy CorporationOpportunity Rank #11(DVN) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Energy

Current Price

$49.48

Last updated: Apr 29, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$49.48
Price
$160.94
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 225%MOS: $128.75

Fundamental Score

76/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

71/100
Strong

+3 vs previous

Trend Score

85/100
Strong

As of 2026-04-28

The intrinsic value of Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) is estimated at $160.94 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $49.48, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -3.08% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.34%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) is estimated at $160.94 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $49.48, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -3.08% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.34%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$160.94
▲ 225.26% upside
20% margin of safety: $128.75
Years: 10Growth Rate: -3.08%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.26%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

76/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
225.3% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
34.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.3% vs WACC 9.0% (0.4x)
18
Net Debt / FCF
0.7x net debt to FCF
86
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
33.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

71/100
Strong
+3 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (76th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 93%Updated: 18h ago
Sources: 91 (73 News · 18 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
60 news sentiment+1.1
10 regulatory scrutiny+0.7
2 earnings beat+0.3
2 analyst upgrades+0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0
16 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

85/100
StrongAs of 2026-04-28310 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+45.0%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+23.1%
Distance from 52-Week High-5.0%
Price vs 21 EMA74 · +4.3%
Price vs 50 EMA80 · +7.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA71 · +2.7%
3M RS vs SPY98 · +23.1%
6M RS vs SPY99 · +45.0%
Distance from 52W High90 · -5.0%

Investment Coach

Updated 8h ago
BUYConfidence: 69%
Thesis
Devon Energy Corporation is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value over 214% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and an improving narrative. The company exhibits robust free cash flow growth and effective buybacks, indicating potential for substantial shareholder returns.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may undermine long-term value creation if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -3.08%5 Year CAGR: 8.64%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$10,452$10,303$14,053$10,491$13,655$6,906$2,515$4,012$5,210$5,714$5,717$11,798$19,431$12,194$13,181$13,758$11,954$9,616$18,783$12,809$13,544

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Devon Energy Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Devon Energy CorporationEnergy

Devon Energy Corporation, an independent energy company, primarily engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. It operates approximately 5,134 gross wells. Devon Energy Corporation was incorporated in 1971 and is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.