Market Pulse59Neutral

eBay Inc.Opportunity Rank #202(EBAY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$106.42

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$106.42
Price
$53.24
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 50%MOS: $42.59

Fundamental Score

35/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

87/100
Strong

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of eBay Inc. (EBAY) is estimated at $53.24 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $106.42, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -1.96% long-term growth rate and a 9.39% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of eBay Inc. (EBAY) is estimated at $53.24 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $106.42, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -1.96% long-term growth rate and a 9.39% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$53.24
▼ -49.97% downside
20% margin of safety: $42.59
Years: 10Growth Rate: -1.96%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
7.2%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

35/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
50.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
5.5% trailing FCF yield
87
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 7.2% vs WACC 11.0% (0.7x)
33
Net Debt / FCF
1.1x net debt to FCF
57
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-1.2% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (93rd pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 154 (123 News · 31 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
102 news sentiment+3.2
17 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
Downgrade headlines+0.1
3 earnings beat-0.0
31 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

87/100
StrongAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-1.5%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+17.6%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+24.1%
Price vs 21 EMA76 · +4.6%
Price vs 50 EMA87 · +9.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA83 · +4.9%
3M RS vs SPY95 · +17.6%
6M RS vs SPY94 · +24.1%
Distance from 52W High97 · -1.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 71%
Thesis
eBay Inc. is currently overvalued with its market price nearly 49% above the estimated fair value, supported by a strong narrative score but weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. Despite a stable and confident narrative, the company's financial performance shows bearish signals including a negative ROIC versus WACC spread and declining free cash flow growth.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that eBay's fundamentals may deteriorate further, exacerbating its valuation disconnect and leading to sustained underperformance.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained periods
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -1.96%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -1.84%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$2,596$2,711$2,872$2,882$2,703$3,101$2,913$3,666$3,309$3,812$3,452$4,701$6,948$6,245$5,095$4,237$3,470$3,475$3,448$3,095$2,763

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates eBay Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

eBay Inc.Consumer Cyclical

eBay Inc. operates marketplace platforms that connect buyers and sellers in the United States and internationally. The company's Marketplace platform includes its online marketplace at ebay.com and the eBay suite of mobile apps. Its platforms enable users to list, buy, sell, and pay for items through various online, mobile, and offline channels that include retailers, distributors, liquidators, import and export companies, auctioneers, catalog and mail-order companies, directories, search engines, commerce participants, shopping channels, and networks. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.