Market Pulse45Neutral

eBay Inc.Opportunity Rank #262(EBAY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$104.94

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$104.94
Price
$53.61
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 49%MOS: $42.89

Fundamental Score

35/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

53/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

59/100
Constructive

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of eBay Inc. (EBAY) is estimated at $53.61 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $104.94, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -1.96% long-term growth rate and a 9.35% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of eBay Inc. (EBAY) is estimated at $53.61 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $104.94, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -1.96% long-term growth rate and a 9.35% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$53.61
▼ -48.91% downside
20% margin of safety: $42.89
Years: 10Growth Rate: -1.96%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
7.06%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

35/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
48.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
5.6% trailing FCF yield
89
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 7.1% vs WACC 11.0% (0.6x)
32
Net Debt / FCF
1.1x net debt to FCF
57
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-1.2% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

53/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (36th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 167 (148 News · 19 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
137 news sentiment+0.2
8 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Layoffs-0.0
2 earnings beat-0.0
19 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

59/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+16.0%
Distance from 52-Week High-11.8%
Price vs 21 EMA-3.6%
Price vs 21 EMA29 · -3.6%
Price vs 50 EMA43 · -1.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA68 · +2.3%
3M RS vs SPY63 · +3.2%
6M RS vs SPY86 · +16.0%
Distance from 52W High76 · -11.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 78%
Thesis
eBay Inc. is currently overvalued with its market price nearly 49% above the estimated fair value, supported by a healthy free cash flow yield but hindered by weak fundamentals and returns below its cost of capital. Despite a stable and improving narrative, the company's ROIC remains below its WACC, indicating operational challenges.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained underperformance of returns relative to the cost of capital, which could further depress valuation and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -1.96%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -1.84%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$2,596$2,711$2,872$2,882$2,703$3,101$2,913$3,666$3,309$3,812$3,452$4,701$6,948$6,245$5,095$4,237$3,470$3,475$3,448$3,095$2,763

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates eBay Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

eBay Inc.Consumer Cyclical

eBay Inc. manages an extensive global e-commerce ecosystem designed to facilitate transactions between buyers and sellers. This framework primarily encompasses its flagship website, ebay.com, alongside its suite of dedicated mobile applications. Through these digital platforms, users are empowered to list, discover, purchase, and pay for a vast array of goods. These transactions occur across a multitude of channels—online, mobile, and even certain traditional avenues—involving a diverse array of participants. This includes individual sellers, small businesses, and larger entities such as retailers, distributors, liquidators, import/export firms, and auctioneers, often integrating with various commerce platforms, search engines, and shopping networks. The company was established in 1995 and its corporate headquarters are situated in San Jose, California.