Market Pulse59Neutral

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.Opportunity Rank #155(ELF) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$61.79

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$61.79
Price
$103.35
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 67%MOS: $82.68

Fundamental Score

64/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

55/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

13/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) is estimated at $103.35 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $61.79, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 13.22% long-term growth rate and a 10.47% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) is estimated at $103.35 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $61.79, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 13.22% long-term growth rate and a 10.47% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$103.35
▲ 67.26% upside
20% margin of safety: $82.68
Years: 10Growth Rate: 13.22%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.62%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

64/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
67.3% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
7.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.6% vs WACC 9.0% (0.3x)
15
Net Debt / FCF
2.3x net debt to FCF
20
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
38.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

55/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (77th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 61 (53 News · 8 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
43 news sentiment+0.6
Analyst downgrades-0.2
4 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
6 legal risk-0.0
7 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

13/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-58.5%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-57.2%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-32.7%
Price vs 21 EMA24 · -4.6%
Price vs 50 EMA8 · -11.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA8 · -7.0%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -32.7%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -57.2%
Distance from 52W High0 · -58.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 90% above its current price, supported by healthy free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. The company's improving narrative and strong free cash flow growth suggest potential for significant upside.
Key Risk
The company's return on invested capital is significantly below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential challenges in generating value above its cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 13.22%5 Year CAGR: 50.52%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020182017201620152014
$278$152$80$104$24$36$54$64$20$11$35-$6

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.Consumer Defensive

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides cosmetic and skin care products under the e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. Skin, Well People, and Keys Soulcare brand names worldwide. The company offers eye, lip, face, face, paw, and skin care products. It sells its products through national and international retailers and direct-to-consumer channels, which include e-commerce platforms in the United States, and internationally primarily through distributors. The company was formerly known as J.A. Cosmetics Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. in April 2016. e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Oakland, California.