Market Pulse59Neutral

Fair Isaac CorporationOpportunity Rank #262(FICO) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$1,128.39

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$1,128.39
Price
$569.06
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 50%MOS: $455.25

Fundamental Score

59/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

68/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

26/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is estimated at $569.06 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,128.39, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.60% long-term growth rate and a 9.07% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is estimated at $569.06 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,128.39, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.60% long-term growth rate and a 9.07% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$569.06
-49.57% downside
20% margin of safety: $455.25
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.60%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
17.81%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

59/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
49.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.5% trailing FCF yield
38
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 17.8% vs WACC 7.0% (2.5x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
3.7x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
19.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

68/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (67th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 85%Updated: 18h ago
Sources: 85 (73 News · 12 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
44 news sentiment+1.2
3 earnings beat+0.3
4 legal risk+0.2
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
18 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
Earnings miss-0.0

Trend Details

26/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-39.7%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-25.9%
Distance from 52-Week High-49.0%
Price vs 21 EMA81 · +6.0%
Price vs 50 EMA47 · -0.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA10 · -6.2%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -25.9%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -39.7%
Distance from 52W High2 · -49.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
WATCHConfidence: 41%
Thesis
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) currently trades at a significant premium, with its price nearly 49% above estimated fair value despite strong fundamentals including a ROIC that exceeds its cost of capital by 10.8 percentage points. The company shows constructive fundamentals and an improving narrative score, though recent trends indicate some deterioration.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the stock price may not correct to a more reasonable valuation level, maintaining a high premium despite weakening narrative trends.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • ROIC remains above cost of capital in upcoming quarters
  • Narrative score trend shows meaningful shifts in direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.60%5 Year CAGR: 16.40%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$922$788$659$473$515$431$387$284$254$245$207$158$188$160$155$150$123$166$182$202$230

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Fair Isaac Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Fair Isaac CorporationTechnology

Fair Isaac Corporation develops analytic, software, and data management products and services that enable businesses to automate, enhance, and connect decisions in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Scores and Software. The Software segment offers pre-configured decision management solution designed for various business problems or processes, such as marketing, account origination, customer management, customer engagement, fraud detection, financial crimes compliance, collection, and marketing, as well as associated professional services. This segment also provides FICO Platform, a modular software offering designed to support advanced analytic and decision use cases, as well as stand-alone analytic and decisioning software that can be configured by customers to address a wide range of business use cases. The Scores segment provides business-to-business scoring solutions and services for consumers that give clients access to analytics to be integrated into their transaction streams and decision-making processes, as well as business-to-consumer scoring solutions comprising myFICO.com subscription offerings. Fair Isaac Corporation markets its products and services primarily through its direct sales organization and indirect channels, as well as online. The company was formerly known as Fair Isaac & Company, Inc. and changed its name to Fair Isaac Corporation in July 1992. Fair Isaac Corporation was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Bozeman, Montana.