Market Pulse44Neutral

Five Below, Inc.Opportunity Rank #78(FIVE) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$193.45

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$193.45
Price
$379.15
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 96%MOS: $303.32

Fundamental Score

72/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

68/100
Improving

+1 vs previous

Trend Score

23/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) is estimated at $379.15 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $193.45, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.12% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.66%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) is estimated at $379.15 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $193.45, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.12% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.66%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$379.15
95.99% upside
20% margin of safety: $303.32
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.12%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
7.19%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

72/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
96.0% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
8.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 7.2% vs WACC 9.0% (0.8x)
40
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
8.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
68
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

68/100
Improving
+1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (56th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 8m ago
Sources: 78 (66 News · 12 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
59 news sentiment+1.8
4 earnings beat-0.2
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
12 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

23/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-29.7%
Price vs 50 EMA-8.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-4.0%
Price vs 21 EMA24 · -4.5%
Price vs 50 EMA15 · -8.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA21 · -4.0%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -29.7%
6M RS vs SPY43 · -2.5%
Distance from 52W High56 · -21.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 72%
Thesis
Five Below, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value nearly double its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and an improving narrative. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's robust free cash flow metrics and bullish fundamental score suggest substantial upside potential.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's returns continuing to trail its weighted average cost of capital, which could undermine valuation gains.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 9.12%5 Year CAGR: 8.64%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
$857$755$835$567$616$566$399$298$235$151$141$94$57$53$65$30$17

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Five Below, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Five Below, Inc.Consumer Defensive

Five Below, Inc. operates as a prominent specialty discount retailer primarily serving the United States market. The company's diverse inventory spans a wide array of personal accessories, from fashionable novelty socks, sunglasses, and jewelry to scarves, gloves, hair accessories, and athletic apparel like tops, bottoms, and t-shirts. Shoppers can also find a comprehensive selection of beauty products, including nail polish, lip gloss, fragrances, and various branded cosmetics. For home and personal spaces, Five Below provides an assortment of items such as lamps, posters, picture frames, cozy fleece blankets, plush toys, pillows, candles, incense, and diverse lighting and novelty décor. This section also includes accent furniture and practical storage solutions. Athletic and recreational interests are covered with sports balls, team merchandise, and fitness essentials like hand weights, jump ropes, and gym balls. The store also boasts a variety of games, from classic board games and puzzles to collectibles and remote-control toys, alongside seasonal outdoor and water-based fun items for pools and beaches. Furthermore, the company caters to technology enthusiasts with accessories for cell phones, tablets, audio devices, and computers, offering cases, chargers, headphones, and related gadgets. Media products, including books, video games, and DVDs, are also available. Creativity is encouraged through a selection of craft activity kits and art supplies like crayons, markers, and stickers. Students can find school essentials such as backpacks, trendy notebooks and journals, novelty pens and pencils, and locker embellishments. For celebrations, Five Below offers party goods, decorations, gag gifts, and greeting cards, encompassing both everyday and special occasion merchandise. A sweet tooth is satisfied with a range of classic and novelty candy bars, movie-sized boxes, seasonal treats, gum, and snack foods, complemented by chilled beverages. Additionally, the retailer stocks a rotating selection of seasonally-themed items for holiday decorating and events. Initially founded as Cheap Holdings, Inc., the company officially adopted the name Five Below, Inc. in August 2002, the same year it was incorporated. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq