Market Pulse59Neutral

Five Below, Inc.Opportunity Rank #35(FIVE) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$221.25

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$221.25
Price
$333.08
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 51%MOS: $266.46

Fundamental Score

67/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

70/100
Strong

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

63/100
Constructive

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) is estimated at $333.08 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $221.25, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.02% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.80%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Five Below, Inc. (FIVE) is estimated at $333.08 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $221.25, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.02% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.80%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$333.08
50.54% upside
20% margin of safety: $266.46
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.02%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.84%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

67/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
50.5% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
6.2% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.8% vs WACC 9.0% (0.6x)
32
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
6.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
55
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

70/100
Strong
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (61st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 91%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 114 (98 News · 16 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
77 news sentiment+1.8
5 earnings beat+0.3
13 regulatory scrutiny-0.1
Inventory pressure+0.0
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
16 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

63/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+34.2%
Distance from 52-Week High-9.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+2.3%
Price vs 21 EMA33 · -2.8%
Price vs 50 EMA47 · -0.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA68 · +2.3%
3M RS vs SPY64 · +3.3%
6M RS vs SPY98 · +34.2%
Distance from 52W High80 · -9.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 64%
Thesis
Five Below, Inc. is attractively valued with an estimated fair value 52.7% above the current price, supported by constructive fundamentals and an improving narrative. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's strong free cash flow yield and improving narrative score suggest potential for upside.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital remaining below its weighted average cost of capital, which could limit value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 9.02%5 Year CAGR: 6.10%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
$761$755$835$567$616$566$399$298$235$151$141$94$57$53$65$30$17

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Five Below, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Five Below, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Five Below, Inc. operates as a specialty value retailer in the United States. The company offers range of accessories, which includes novelty socks, sunglasses, jewelry, scarves, gloves, hair accessories, athletic tops and bottoms, and t-shirts, as well as nail polish, lip gloss, fragrance, and branded cosmetics; and personalized living space products, such as lamps, posters, frames, fleece blankets, plush items, pillows, candles, incense, lighting, novelty décor, accent furniture, and related items, as well as provides storage options. It provides assortment of sports balls, team sports merchandise, and fitness accessories comprising hand weights, jump ropes, and gym balls; various games, such as board games, puzzles, collectibles, and toys, including remote control; and summer season sports, which includes pool, beach, and outdoor toys, as well as games and accessories. In addition, the company offers accessories for cell phones, tablets, audio, and computers, as well as cases, chargers, headphones, and other related items; and media products including books, video games, and DVDs. It also provides assortment of craft activity kits, and arts and crafts supplies, such as crayons, markers, and stickers; and school products comprising backpacks, fashion notebooks and journals, novelty pens and pencils, and locker accessories. Further, the company offers party products, which includes party goods, decorations, gag gifts, and greeting cards, as well as every day and special occasion merchandise; assortment of classic and novelty candy bars, movie-size box candy, seasonal-related candy, and gum and snack food products, as well as sells chilled drinks through coolers; and provides seasonally specific items used to celebrate and decorate for events. The company was formerly known as Cheap Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Five Below, Inc. in August 2002. Five Below, Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.