Market Pulse44Neutral

Fastly, Inc.Opportunity Rank #125(FSLY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$17.17

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$17.17
Price
$29.02
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 69%MOS: $23.22

Fundamental Score

67/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

57/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

20/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Fastly, Inc. (FSLY) is estimated at $29.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $17.17, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.38% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.26%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Fastly, Inc. (FSLY) is estimated at $29.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $17.17, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.38% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.26%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$29.02
69.02% upside
20% margin of safety: $23.22
Years: 10Growth Rate: 14.38%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-1.91%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

67/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
69.0% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
5.8% trailing FCF yield
95
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -1.9% vs WACC 8.0% (-0.2x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
0.1x net debt to FCF
97
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
54.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

57/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (17th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 85%Updated: 28m ago
Sources: 40 (35 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
13 regulatory scrutiny+0.6
19 news sentiment+0.1
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

20/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-46.6%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+60.7%
Distance from 52-Week High-48.7%
Price vs 21 EMA11 · -7.9%
Price vs 50 EMA4 · -14.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA8 · -6.9%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -46.6%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +60.7%
Distance from 52W High3 · -48.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 57%
Thesis
Fastly, Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 71.8% above the current price, supported by healthy free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company shows strong cash flow growth and a bullish fundamental score.
Key Risk
The company’s return on invested capital remains significantly below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential ongoing value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 28.93%5 Year CAGR: 67.36%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
$156$123$54$33$11$12$18-$11$3-$13

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Fastly, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Fastly, Inc.Technology

Fastly, Inc. offers an advanced edge cloud computing platform designed to efficiently manage, distribute, and safeguard client applications across a global footprint, including North America, the Asia Pacific region, Europe, and other international markets. This specialized Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) empowers developers to build, secure, and rapidly deliver digital experiences right at the internet's edge. It functions as a highly customizable platform, optimized for web and application delivery. The company's broad range of offerings includes: Compute@Edge, their serverless computing environment. A comprehensive developer hub providing solution patterns, API and language references, change logs, and Fastly Fiddle resources. Specialized edge services such as device detection, geolocation, edge dictionaries, access control lists (ACLs), and authentication. Full site delivery capabilities, encompassing dynamic site acceleration, origin shield, instant cache purging, real-time logging and statistics, cloud optimization, programmatic control, edge databases, content compression, and support for modern protocols to ensure high performance and reliability. Streaming solutions for live media, media shield, and origin connect. Robust edge security features, including Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) protection, a cloud-based web application firewall (WAF), Transport Layer Security (TLS), platform TLS, and various compliance services. Unified web application and API protection that incorporates runtime self-application protection, advanced rate limiting, API and account takeover (ATO) protection, bot mitigation, and a next-generation WAF. Supplementary edge applications like load balancers and image optimizers. Video on demand services and fully managed edge delivery services. Fastly caters to a wide array of industries, including digital publishing, media and entertainment, technology, e-commerce, travel and hospitality, and financial services. Originally incorporated in 2011 as SkyCache, Inc., the company officially adopted the name Fastly, Inc. in May 2012. Its corporate headquarters are situated in San Francisco, California.