Market Pulse44Neutral

GMS Inc.Opportunity Rank #93(GMS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$109.96

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$109.96
Price
$193.62
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 76%MOS: $154.90

Fundamental Score

57/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

51/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

50/100
Neutral

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of GMS Inc. (GMS) is estimated at $193.62 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $109.96, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.61% long-term growth rate and a 10.68% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of GMS Inc. (GMS) is estimated at $193.62 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $109.96, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.61% long-term growth rate and a 10.68% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$193.62
76.08% upside
20% margin of safety: $154.90
Years: 10Growth Rate: 10.61%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.67%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

57/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
76.1% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
10.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.7% vs WACC 10.0% (0.2x)
8
Net Debt / FCF
2.5x net debt to FCF
14
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
5.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
51
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

51/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (74th pct)Weighted across 2 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 37%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 2 (2 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
Regulatory scrutiny+0.1
News sentiment+0.0

Trend Details

50/100
NeutralAs of 2026-06-22111 daily bars used
Trend score unavailable for this ticker right now.

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
GMS Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value over 100% above its current price, supported by healthy free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company shows potential for value appreciation driven by strong cash flow and buyback activity.
Key Risk
The key risk is the persistent negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are not covering the cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 10.61%5 Year CAGR: 18.19%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
$423$431$490$494$221$183$328$212$112$78$55$62$29$30

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates GMS Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

GMS Inc.Industrials

GMS Inc., founded in 1971 and based in Tucker, Georgia, is a leading distributor of a broad range of building materials throughout the United States and Canada. The company primarily supplies wallboard, diverse ceiling systems, and steel framing components, alongside numerous complementary construction products. Its ceiling offerings, which include suspended mineral fiber, soft fiber, and metal systems, are widely utilized in commercial and institutional environments such as offices, hotels, hospitals, retail establishments, and schools. GMS also provides essential steel framing items like tracks and studs, integral for constructing interior walls in similar building types. Beyond these core products, the inventory extends to insulation, lumber and other wood products, ready-mix joint compound, and various other interior building supplies. Additionally, the company offers ancillary items such as tools, fasteners, and safety equipment. Serving both professional contractors and residential homebuilders, GMS maintained a substantial operational footprint as of April 30, 2022, with 300 branches spread across 44 U.S. states (including the District of Columbia) and 6 Canadian provinces, all supported by approximately 300 distribution centers.