Market Pulse50Neutral

Alphabet Inc.Opportunity Rank #14(GOOG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$303.21

Last updated: Mar 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$303.21
Price
$426.95
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 41%MOS: $341.56

Fundamental Score

85/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) is estimated at $426.95 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $303.21, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.24% long-term growth rate and a 9.20% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) is estimated at $426.95 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $303.21, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.24% long-term growth rate and a 9.20% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$426.95
▲ 40.81% upside
20% margin of safety: $341.56
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.24%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
11.06%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

85/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
40.8% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
7.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 11.1% vs WACC 8.0% (1.4x)
69
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
24.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Buybacks.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (50th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 207 (200 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
173 news sentiment+6.1
21 regulatory scrutiny+1.5
4 upgrade headlines+0.3
2 legal risk-0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) is attractively valued with a fair value estimate 45.6% above the current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high fundamental score of 85 and a ROIC that exceeds its cost of capital by 3.1 percentage points. The company demonstrates robust free cash flow growth and a stable narrative trend, making it a compelling buy opportunity.
Key Risk
A key risk is if the ROIC falls below the cost of capital or if the valuation discount narrows significantly, undermining the investment thesis.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.24%5 Year CAGR: 17.11%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$256,160$256,160$177,834$133,997$122,980$116,292$87,405$78,068$73,110$50,275$46,248$35,939$33,335$26,017$19,892$18,003$15,099$10,126$10,211$8,178$5,483

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Alphabet Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Alphabet Inc.Communication Services

Alphabet Inc. offers various products and platforms in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets segments. The Google Services segment provides products and services, including ads, Android, Chrome, devices, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Photos, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. It is also involved in the sale of apps and in-app purchases and digital content in the Google Play and YouTube; and devices, as well as in the provision of YouTube consumer subscription services. The Google Cloud segment offers infrastructure, cybersecurity, databases, analytics, AI, and other services; Google Workspace that include cloud-based communication and collaboration tools for enterprises, such as Gmail, Docs, Drive, Calendar, and Meet; and other services for enterprise customers. The Other Bets segment sells healthcare-related and internet services. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.