Market Pulse59Neutral

Alphabet Inc.Opportunity Rank #38(GOOGL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$397.99

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$397.99
Price
$438.75
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 10%MOS: $351.00

Fundamental Score

79/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

79/100
Strong

+1 vs previous

Trend Score

95/100
Strong

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) is estimated at $438.75 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $397.99, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.30% long-term growth rate and a 9.70% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) is estimated at $438.75 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $397.99, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.30% long-term growth rate and a 9.70% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$438.75
▲ 10.24% upside
20% margin of safety: $351.00
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.30%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
11.53%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

79/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
10.2% discount to price
67
FCF Yield
5.9% trailing FCF yield
98
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 11.5% vs WACC 8.0% (1.4x)
72
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
26.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: FCF Yield, ROIC vs WACC. Concerns: Buybacks.

Narrative Details

79/100
Strong
+1 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (14th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 237 (200 News · 37 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
178 news sentiment+13.2
9 regulatory scrutiny+0.8
5 earnings beat+0.7
3 upgrade headlines+0.5
2 layoffs-0.3
Margin pressure+0.3

Trend Details

95/100
StrongAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High0.0%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+32.1%
Price vs 50 EMA+18.9%
Price vs 21 EMA93 · +11.1%
Price vs 50 EMA97 · +18.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA90 · +7.0%
3M RS vs SPY95 · +17.3%
6M RS vs SPY97 · +32.1%
Distance from 52W High100 · 0.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Alphabet Inc. presents a strong investment opportunity with a robust fundamental score of 80 and a valuation implying a 14.1% upside. Its ROIC of 11.53% exceeds the cost of capital by 3.5 percentage points, supported by a stable and positive narrative score of 78.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the valuation discount may narrow below 10%, reducing upside potential.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.30%5 Year CAGR: 19.57%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$284,277$256,160$177,834$133,997$122,980$116,292$87,405$78,068$73,110$50,275$46,248$35,939$33,335$26,017$19,892$18,003$15,099$10,126$10,211$8,178$5,483

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Alphabet Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Alphabet Inc.Communication Services

Alphabet Inc. provides various products and platforms in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets segments. The Google Services segment offers products and services, including ads, Android, Chrome, hardware, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Photos, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. It is also involved in the sale of apps and in-app purchases and digital content in the Google Play store; and Fitbit wearable devices, Google Nest home products, Pixel phones, and other devices, as well as in the provision of YouTube non-advertising services. The Google Cloud segment offers infrastructure, platform, and other services; Google Workspace that include cloud-based collaboration tools for enterprises, such as Gmail, Docs, Drive, Calendar, and Meet; and other services for enterprise customers. The Other Bets segment sells health technology and internet services. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.